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1 Journal of Polish Safety and Reliability Association

1 2019

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Modelling, identification and prediction of oil spill domains at port and sea water areas

Dąbrowska Ewa, Kołowrocki Krzysztof

Journal of Polish Safety and Reliability Association

2019

Vol. 10, No. 1

43--58

Methods of oil spill domains determination are reviewed and a new method based on a probabilistic approach to the solution of this problem is recommended. A semi-Markov model of the process of changing hydro-meteorological conditions is constructed. To describe the oil spill domain central point position a two-dimensional stochastic process is used. Parametric equations of oil spill domain central point drift trend curve for different kinds of hydro-meteorological conditions are determined. The general model of oil spill domain determination for various hydro-meteorological conditions is proposed. Moreover, statistical methods of this general model unknown parameters estimation are proposed. These methods are presented in the form of algorithms giving successive steps which should be done to evaluate these unknown model parameters on the base of statistical data coming from experiments performed at the sea. Moreover, approximate expected stochastic prediction and Monte Carlo Simulation in real time prediction of the oil spill domain movement are proposed.