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EN
The GNSS positioning performance is commonly defined and described in terms unspecified to particular GNSS-based application. The approach causes difficulties to GNSS application developers, operators, and users, rendering the impact assessment of GNSS performance on the GNSS application Quality of Service (QoS) particularly difficult. Here the Probability of Occurrence (PoO) Model is introduced, which allows for a risk assessment of the probability for the GNSS positioning accuracy failure to meet the requirements of the particular GNSS-based application. The proposed PoO Model development procedure requires a large set of position estimation errors observations, which shall cover a range of classes of positioning environment (space weather, troposphere, multi-path etc.) disturbances affecting GNSS positioning accuracy. As result, the PoO Model becomes a tool that returns the probability of failure in meeting the positioning accuracy requirements of the GNSS applications considered, thus providing the input for a GNSS deployment risk assessment. The proposed PoO Model and its development procedure are demonstrated in the case of polar region positioning environment, with raw GNSS pseudorange observations taken at the International GNSS Service (IGS) Network reference station Iqualuit, Canada are used for the PoO Model development. The PoO Model proof-of-principle is then used to estimate the probability of the unmet required positioning accuracy for a number of polar maritime navigation applications. Manuscript concludes with a discussion of the PoO Model benefits and shortcomings, a summary of contribution, and intentions for the future research.
EN
Over the recent years, ship traffic in the polar areas has increased. There is reason to believe that this traffic, and especially the cruise traffic, will increase further as the ice retracts towards the poles. There is also reason to believe that with the continued focus and exposure of the Polar Region, the cruise tourism to the region will grow. The increased presence in the polar areas will create positive repercussions for several actors, both on sea and land. There will, however, also be challenges associated with the growing presence in the polar areas. Vessels will be operating at long distances to other vessels and land infrastructures. These vessels will also be operating in climate and conditions that will put extra pressure on both vessel and crew. These challenges need to be solved in order for the ship industry to operate safely in the Polar Region. To ensure that companies operating in these areas identify and manage these challenges, the International Maritime Organization (IMO) developed the Polar Code (2017) with the intent of increasing the safety for vessels operating in polar waters, and to reduce the impact on humans and environment in this remote, vulnerable and harsh area. This code defines a number of requirements, with which the vessels should operate in accordance with. In this paper, we reveal which challenges the vessel and its crew need to deal with when navigating in polar waters. The challenges will be analysed and assessed through the use of a preliminary qualitative risk analysis to determine the potential hazards the vessel is exposed to under operations in polar waters, and to find out what level of risk the different hazards represents for the vessel and its crew. The main objective of the paper is to find out how the risk levels can be reduced, with particular focus on the use of simulator training as a risk reducing measure. The final goal is to measure the risk towards acceptance criteria, which have been determined prior to conducting the analysis.
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