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Probabilistic estimation of diverse soil condition impact on vertical axis tank deformation

Żyliński Kamil, Górski Jarosław

Bulletin of the Polish Academy of Sciences. Technical Sciences

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2023

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Vol. 71, nr 1

art. no. e144576

EN

The calculations of fuel tanks should take into account the geometric imperfections of the structure as well as the variability of the material parameters of the foundation. The deformation of the tank shell can have a significant impact on the limit state of the structure and its operating conditions. The paper presents a probabilistic analysis of a vertical-axis, floating-roof cylindrical shell of a tank with a capacity of 50000 m3 placed on stratified soil with heterogeneous material parameters. The impact of a random subsoil description was estimated using the Point Estimated Method (PEM). In this way, the number of analyzed FEM models was significantly reduced. This approach also makes it possible to assess the sensitivity of tank settlement and deformation to the changing foundation conditions.

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Simplified Probabilistic Analysis of Settlement of Cyclically Loaded Soil Stratum by Point Estimate Method

Przewłócki J., Górski J., Świdziński W.

Archives of Hydro-Engineering and Environmental Mechanics

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2016

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Vol. 63, nr 2-3

121--133

EN

The paper deals with the probabilistic analysis of the settlement of a non-cohesive soil layer subjected to cyclic loading. Originally, the settlement assessment is based on a deterministic compaction model, which requires integration of a set of differential equations. However, with the use of the Bessel functions, the settlement of a soil stratum can be calculated by a simplified algorithm. The compaction model parameters were determined for soil samples taken from subsoil near the Izmit Bay, Turkey. The computations were performed for various sets of random variables. The point estimate method was applied, and the results were verified by the Monte Carlo method. The outcome leads to a conclusion that can be useful in the prediction of soil settlement under seismic loading.

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Probabilistic analysis of a space truss by means of multidimensional variable description

Sorn P., Górski J., Przewłócki J.

Archives of Civil Engineering

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2015

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Vol. 61, nr 2

99--123

EN

Probabilistic analysis of a space truss is presented in the paper. Reliability of such a structure is sensitive to geometrical and material imperfections. The objective of this paper is to present a variant of the point estimate method (PEM) to determine mean values and standard deviations of limit loads of engineering structures. The main advantage presented by this method is the small number of sample calculations required to obtain estimators of investigated parameters. Thus the method is straightforward, requiring only preliminaries of probability theory. This approach is illustrated by limit state analysis of a space truss, considering geometric and material imperfections. The calculations were performed for different random models, so the influence of random parameters on the limit load of the truss can be determined. A realistic snow load was imposed.

PL

W pracy przedstawiono probabilistyczną analizę kratownicy przestrzennej. Obciążenia graniczne tego typu konstrukcji są wrażliwe na odchyłki geometryczne oraz zmiany parametrów materiałowych. W obliczeniach niezawodności stosowanych jest wiele metod: metoda Monte Carlo, metody redukujące liczbę realizacji (np. metoda próbkowania warstwowego i hipersześcianu łacińskiego), metoda powierzchni odpowiedzi, sieci neuronowych i inne. Metoda Monte Carlo nie narzuca żadnych ograniczeń na analizowane problemy ale jej zastosowanie wymaga czasochłonnych obliczeń. Z kolei efektywne metody redukcyjne podlegają trudnym do zdefiniowania ograniczeniom. Często stosowane są tzw. metody pierwszego i drugiego rzędu (FORM, SORM), jednakże w praktyce znajdują one zastosowanie jedynie w określonej klasie zagadnień. Efektywne rozwiązanie można też uzyskać wykorzystując metodę estymacji rozkładem dyskretnym (PEM – Point Estimate Method).