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2 Journal of Polish Safety and Reliability Association

2 2017

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Identification and prediction of port oil piping transportation system operation process related to climate-weather change

Kołowrocki K., Soszyńska-Budny J., Torbicki M.

Journal of Polish Safety and Reliability Association

2017

Vol. 8, No. 2

113--120

The paper is concerned with an application of the critical infrastructure operation process related to climateweather change model to identification and prediction of this process for the port oil piping transportation system. There are distinguished three different processes for the corresponding piping operating area. Further, using identified parameters of the piping operation process and the piping operating area climate-weather change processes, there are determined the unknown parameters of those processes. Namely, there are determined the probabilities of the processes staying at the initial states, the probabilities of the transitions between the states and the mean values of the processes' conditional sojourn times at particular states. Finally, there are predicted the main characteristics of the piping operation process related to climate-weather change processes at the distinguished operating area.

Identification and prediction of port oil piping transportation system operation process including operating environment threats and extreme weathers hazards

Torbicki M.

Journal of Polish Safety and Reliability Association

2017

Vol. 8, No. 2

121--128

The paper is concerned with an application of the critical infrastructure operation process including operating environment threats and extreme weather hazards model to identification and prediction of this process for the port oil piping transportation system. There are distinguished three processes for the considered piping operating area. Further, using identified parameters of the operation process including operating environment threats and the climate-weather change processes for the piping operating area, there are determined the unknown parameters of these processes. Namely, the probabilities of the piping processes staying at the initial states, the probabilities of the piping processes transitions between the states and the mean values of the piping processes conditional sojourn times at particular states. Finally, there are predicted the main characteristics of the piping operation process including operating environment threats and extreme weather hazards at the distinguished operating area.