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Study on the estimation of SARS-CoV-2 virus pathogens’ transmission probabilities for different public bus transport service scenarios

Burdzik Rafał, Speybroeck Niko

Transport Problems

2023

T. 18, z. 3

199--211

The worldwide COVID-19 pandemic revealed societal challenges, with passenger transport rapidly experiencing the impacts of the virus and the evolution of the concept of safety in transport. Evaluating the likelihood of viral transmission within transportation systems may be a substantial challenge, considering the complex processes that influence the incidence of random transmission events. This paper introduces a method for determining the probability of pathogen transmission in public transport, focusing on the SARS-CoV-2 virus. The study draws on scenarios from the first and second waves of the COVID-19 pandemic in Poland, a period that was devastatingly marked by the lack of available vaccines. This study aims to add value to the scientific community by offering an estimation of the likelihood of SARS-CoV-2 transmission in public transport and a preliminary risk assessment for COVID-19 infection, considering the number of active, non-isolated COVID-19 cases in the Polish population. The potential of this approach was demonstrated through a comparison between two different categories of passenger transport in a city bus. Based on the presented case study and the calculated probability of pathogen transmission, it is estimated that the probability of SARS-CoV-2 infection during the second wave of the COVID-19 pandemic in Poland through the use of public transport was approximately 0.05%. Probability estimations based on elementary events, which can vary depending on the service category (for instance, the form of ticket purchase, availability of seating or standing places, or ticket inspection), can reveal even the smallest differences in the total likelihood of pathogen transmission. However, these minute individual variations significantly impact the total metrics calculated for daily users of public transport. For effective monitoring of potential epidemic threats and for designing suitable interventions and restrictions to lower the risk of future pandemics, it may be necessary to understand the role that transportation systems, particularly public transport systems, play in the spread of pathogens.

Probability of transmission of SARS-CoV-2 virus pathogens in long-distance passenger transport

Burdzik Rafał

Archives of Transport

2023

Vol. 68, iss. 4

21--39

This paper presents a description of the methodology developed for estimation of pathogen transmission in transport and the results of the case study application for long-distance passenger transport. The primary objective is to report the method developed and the application for case studies in various passenger transport services. The most important findings and achievements of the presented study are the original universal methodology to estimate the probability of pathogen transmission with full mathematical disclosure and an open process formula, to make it possible to take other specific mechanisms of virus transmission when providing transport services. The results presented conducted an analysis on the mechanisms of transmission of SARS-CoV-2 virus pathogens during the transport process, to examine the chain of events as a result of which passengers may be infected. The author proposed a new method to estimate the probability of transmission of viral pathogens using the probability theory of the sum of elementary events. This is a new approach in this area, the advantage of which is a fully explicit mathematical formula that allows the method to be applied to various cases. The findings of this study can facilitate the management of epidemic risk in passenger transport operators and government administration. It should be clearly emphasised that the developed method and estimated values are the probabilities of pathogen transmission. Estimating the probability of transmission of the SARS-CoV-2 virus pathogen is not the same as the probability of viral infection, and more so the probability of contracting COVID-19. Viral infection strongly depends on viral mechanisms, exposure doses, and contact frequency. The probability of contracting COVID-19 and its complications depends on the individual characteristics of the immune system, even with confirmed viral infection. However, it is undoubtedly that the probability of transmission of the SARS-CoV-2 virus pathogen is the most reliable measure of infection risk, which can be estimated according to the objective determinants of pathogen transmission.