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Multidimensional analysis of losses in the number of passengers transported by air in Poland and Germany caused by the COVID-19 pandemic in terms of the maintenance of economic security

Kozicki Bartosz, Skrabacz Aleksandra, Gałek Beata, Lorek Marlena

Journal of Sustainable Development of Transport and Logistics

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2023

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Vol. 8, No. 2

58--70

EN

In the study, the authors conducted a multidimensional data analysis on the decrease in the number of passengers transported by air in Poland and Germany caused by the COVID-19 pandemic between 2020-2022. Forecasts of the number of passengers transported by air in Poland and Germany obtained after applying the Holt-Winters exponential smoothing method from January 2020 to December 2022 were compared with actual data. The research showed that in the case of Germany, in 2020 there was a decrease of 174 628 873 people, and in 2022, it was 90 620 354 people. In Poland, the decrease in 2020 amounted to 40 257 520 people; in 2022, it was already 21 083 066 passengers.

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Influence of COVID-19 coronavirus pandemic on international oil markets

Tvalchrelidze Alexander G., Silagadze Avtandil

Zeszyty Naukowe Akademii Morskiej w Szczecinie

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2020

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nr 63 (135)

97--103

EN

At the beginning of the COVID-19 coronavirus global pandemic, the oil market was crushed. In this period, the oil market was correlated with COVID-19 coronavirus world infection cases: more infected cases resulted in low oil prices, and the negative correlation between these two indices was very strong. Different factors determined the increase in both crude oil price and the number of oil futures contracts after April 20. Firstly, oil prices were driven by the coronavirus mortality rate, rather than by the absolute number of infection cases. The decisive driver for oil prices in the medium-term became pandemic development trends, instead of the actual epidemiological situation. This statement is proven by the statistical regression model of the interdependence between oil prices and COVID-19 coronavirus world mortality rate. Secondly, a gradual stable decrease in the coronavirus world mortality rate created an environment for the gradual restart of the world economy. Thirdly, the coronavirus mortality rate analysis provides investors with tangible guidelines to assess the medium-term sustainability of futures markets and, therefore, to elaborate investment strategies. Fourthly, after April 20, the oil market gradually achieved equilibrium, which is proven by a restored correlation between oil prices and the Euro-to-U.S. Dollar exchange rate. Three-month tendencies provide tangible guidelines for an optimistic forecast of the oil the market and maritime tanker business for the end of 2020 and all of 2021. So long as a new wave of COVID-19 does not dramatically increase mortality rates, the oil and maritime tanker trade market will regain the equilibrium it lost at the end of January

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Zsynchronizowane i wyjątkowe kształtowanie się cen ropy naftowej i złota: wyjaśnienia i perspektywy

Aguilera R. F., Radetzki M.

Zeszyty Naukowe Instytutu Gospodarki Surowcami Mineralnymi i Energią PAN

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2018

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nr 102

7--24

PL

Prezentowany artykuł porównuje światowe rynki złota i ropy naftowej w celu wyjaśnienia zaskakująco wysokiej korelacji cen obu surowców od roku 1970 oraz imponującego ich wzrostu w porównaniu z cenami praktycznie wszystkich pozostałych surowców. Autorzy sugerują, że rozwój sytuacji na rynku naftowym i wynikające z niego skutki makroekonomiczne wpłynęły na inwestycje w złoto, zapewniając w ten sposób najbardziej wiarygodne wyjaśnienie dla synchronizacji zmian cen obu towarów. Analizując nadzwyczajne wzrosty cen ropy naftowej i złota, w szczególności w porównaniu z cenami innych metali i innych surowców mineralnych, autorzy zakładają, że najpierw nastąpił wzrost cen ropy, wywołany przez zewnętrzne ograniczenia dotyczące zdolności produkcyjnych. W konsekwencji wzrosła cena złota, niejako odpowiadając na potrzebę bezpiecznych inwestycji dla zachowania wartości środków inwestycyjnych, co jest cechą charakterystyczną złota, której nie posiadają inne metale i surowce mineralne. Prezentowany artykuł omawia także prawdopodobną ewolucję cen tych ważnych surowców argumentując, że ceny ropy w najbliższych dziesięcioleciach utrzymają swój poziom lub obniżą się, a ceny złota będą nadal kontynuowały wzrost, co doprowadzi do zniesienia związku pomiędzy cenami ropy i złota.

EN

This paper compares the global markets for gold and oil so as to explain the surprisingly high correlation of the two materials’ prices since 1970, and the exceedingly impressive rise of both price series compared with that of virtually all other primary commodities. We propose that developments in the oil market, and the resulting effects on the macroeconomy, influenced investment activity in gold, thus providing the most plausible explanation for the two commodities’ price synchronization. Our view on the extraordinary price increases of oil and gold, compared to a broad category of metals and minerals, is that oil prices rose first based on above-ground hurdles that restrained the capacity to produce, and gold prices then reacted as they were pushed up by rising safe-haven investment to store value – an attribute not shared by other metals and minerals. The paper also comments on the likely future price evolution of these important materials, arguing that oil prices will stagnate or weaken in the coming decades but that gold prices will continue to ride relatively high – thus leading to a collapse of the oil/gold price connection.