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Modelling oil spill layer thickness and hydro-meteorological conditions impacts on its domain movement at sea area

Dąbrowska Ewa

Safety and Reliability of Systems and Processes

2022

Summer Safety and Reliability Seminar 2022

51--64

The general model of oil spill domain movement forecasting dependent on the thickness of oil spill layer based on a probabilistic approach considering the influence of the hydro-meteorological conditions at sea area is proposed. A semi-Markov model of the process of changing hydro-meteorological conditions is constructed. A two-dimensional stochastic process is used to describe the oil spill domain central point position movement. Parametric equation of oil spill domain central point drift trend curve considering the initial thickness of oil spill layer at the oil spill central point is used. Next, the method of oil spill domain determination dependent on the thickness of oil spill layer for various hydro-meteorological conditions is presented. The generalization of the presented approach assuming that the thickness is changing with time is also proposed. At the end, the research further perspective is given.