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1 Polish Journal of Ecology

1 2012

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Influence of climate parameters on long-term variations of the distribution of phytoplankton biomass and nutrient concentration in the Baltic Sea simulated by a 3D model

Dzierzbicka-Głowacka L., Piskozub J., Jakacki J., Janecki M., Nowicki A.

Polish Journal of Ecology

2012

Vol. 60, nr 4

651--666

We used a 3-D coupled seaice ecological model of the Baltic Sea to investigate the influence of long-term trends in average temperature, wind speed and solar irradiance on nutrients concentration and distribution of phytoplankton. We tested the sensitivity of the model to changes of the main physical parameters such as temperature, wind speed, solar and thermal radiation performing several numerical experiments with different configurations. Discussion about the relevance of the results for the expected future climate change is provided. The calculations were done for whole Baltic Sea for the period from 2004 to 2048. The results of the numerical simulations for the different areas of Baltic Sea (nine stations: Gulf of Gdańsk, Gdańsk Deep, Gotland Deep, Bornholm Deep, Gulf of Finland, Gulf of Riga, Gulf of Bothnian, Bothnian Sea, Danish Straits) were presented. The simulations results show significant changes in phytoplankton biomass and nutrient concentration distributions, which took place in the regions where a significant increase in currents (to 100 cm s-1) was found. The results of the numerical simulations for five years (2000–2004) are consistent with in situ observations for temperature and phytoplankton (Dzierzbicka-Glowacka et al. 2011b).