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Modelling of fiscal policy effects on agriculture and industry in Ukraine

Shevchuk V., Kopych R.

Information Systems in Management

2017

Vol. 6, No. 2

131--142

This paper analyses the effects of fiscal policies upon agriculture and industry in Ukraine, with the SVAR model using quarterly data for the 2001–2016 period. The results indicate a positive effect of the government spending on both agricultural production and industrial output, while an increase in the government revenue is of the same expansionary impact for the latter only. Among other results, there is a weak negative short-lived spillover from agriculture to industry, with no causality running on the reverse. As agricultural production in Ukraine is associated with a higher level of government spending in the short run, a direction of causality seems to be just the opposite for industrial output. Both agriculture and industry bring about higher budget revenues in the short run, but for the latter this effect is lagged and more persistent. Controlling for fiscal policy effects, the nominal (real) exchange rate depreciation seems to be expansionary for industrial output. For agriculture, a nominal exchange rate depreciation is restrictionary in the short run, with an expansionary effect in the long run (however, this result is not supported in specification with the real exchange rate). Several implications of fiscal policy effects are discussed.

Modelling of exchange rate effects and complimentaries between agriculture and industry in Ukraine

Shevchuk V.

Information Systems in Management

2016

Vol. 5, No. 3

401--412

This paper examines links between the exchange rate, agricultural and industrial outputs in Ukraine. This is estimated using monthly data for the 2001−2015 period. Results provide evidence that there is a positive spillover from agriculture to industry, being in line with modern arguments on the role of agricultural sector in economic growth (infrastructural spillovers, rural income effects, provision of resources for an industrialized economy). However, industrial output squeezes out agricultural production in the short run. Depreciation of the nominal (real) exchange rate has an expansionary effect on industrial output, but it is harmful for agriculture. From a policy perspective, the results suggest that agriculture-supporting policies should be productive in the industrialization context either.