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Use of fuzzy fault tree analysis and noisy-OR gate bayesian network for navigational risk assessment in Qingzhou Port

Zhao C., Wu B., Yip T. L., Lv J.

TransNav : International Journal on Marine Navigation and Safety of Sea Transportation

2021

Vol. 15 No. 4

765--771

Collisions and groundings account for more than 80% among all types of maritime accidents, and risk assessment is an essential step in the formal safety assessment. This paper proposes a method based on fuzzy fault tree analysis and Noisy-OR gate Bayesian network for navigational risk assessment. First, a fault tree model was established with historical data, and the probability of basic events is calculated using fuzzy sets. Then, the Noisy-OR gate is utilized to determine the conditional probability of related nodes and obtain the probability distribution of the consequences in the Bayesian network. Finally, this proposed method is applied to Qinzhou Port. From sensitivity analysis, several predominant influencing factors are identified, including navigational area, ship type and time of the day. The results indicate that the consequence is sensitive to the position where the accidents occurred. Consequently, this paper provides a practical and reasonable method for risk assessment for navigational accidents.

The risk of striking accidents during LPG ships passage in ports in respect to technical failures based on real time simulations in Szczecin-Świnoujście waterway

Bąk A., Gucma L.

Journal of KONBiN

2016

No. 39

159--180

The method of risk assessment based on ship systems technical failures during the passage in the region of Świnoujście of the large LPG (liquefied petroleum gas) tanker is presented. The statistical reliability indicators and the simulation model of ships manoeuvring. The researches carried out within this paper let to determine the safety level and necessary tug escort service during the passage of the ship with the hazardous cargo in the port area.

W artykule przedstawiono metodę oceny ryzyka wypadków na skutek awarii technicznych podczas przejścia w rejonie Świnoujścia dużej jednostki typu LPG przewożącej skroplony propan. Wykorzystano statystyczne wskaźniki niezawodnościowe oraz model symulacyjny ruchu jednostki. Przeprowadzone badania pozwoliły określić niezbędne zabezpieczania w postaci obsługi holowniczej podczas przejścia statku z ładunkiem niebezpiecznym w rejonie portów.