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Prediction of fatal accidents in Indian factories based on ARIMA

Rajaprasad S. V. S.

Production Engineering Archives

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2018

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Vol. 18

24--30

EN

The inherent benefits of an accident prevention program are generally known only after an accident has occurred. The purpose of implementation of the program is to minimize the number of accidents and cost of damages. Allocation of resources to implement accident prevention program is vital because it is difficult to estimate the extent of damage caused by an accident. Accurate fatal accident predictions can provide a meaningful data that can be used to implement accident prevention program in order to minimize the cost of accidents. This paper forecast the fatal accidents of factories in India by using Auto-Regressive Integrating Moving Average Method (ARIMA) model. Accident data for the available period 1980 to 2013 was collected from the Labour bureau, Government of India to analyze the long term forecasts. Different diagnostic tests are applied in order to check the adequacy of the fitted models. The results show that ARIMA (0, 0, 1) is suitable model for prediction of fatal injuries. The number of fatal accidents is forecasted for the period 2014 to 2019. These results suggest that the policy makers and the Indian labour ministry must focus attention toward increasing fatal accidents and try to find out the reasons. It is also an opportunity for the policy makers to develop policies which may help in minimizing the number fatal accidents.

2

Prognozowanie w logistyce na przykładzie prognozy metodą średnich ruchomych

Duda A.

Zeszyty Naukowe Akademii Sztuki Wojennej

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2017

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nr 3(108)

206--227

PL

Prognozowanie w logistyce przedsiębiorstwa jest niezwykle istotnym elementem procesów decyzyjnych, dlatego też ważny jest adekwatny dobór metod prognozowania do badanych zjawisk i procesów logistycznych. Tematem artykułu jest prognozowanie w logistyce na przykładzie prognozy metodą średnich ruchomych. Celem artykułu jest usystematyzowanie pojęć i rodzaju metod prognozowania, a ponadto przedstawienie algorytmu obliczenia prognozy metodą średnich ruchomych na podstawie rzeczywistych danych empirycznych produkcji samochodów osobowych w Polsce w 2016 roku. Prowadzenie badań wszelkiego rodzaju metod prognozowania jest niezwykle przydatnym uzupełnieniem istniejących luk w teorii i praktyce procesów logistycznych przedsiębiorstw.

EN

Predicting in logistics is an important element of decision-making, as is the selection of an adequate method of predicting in the studied phenomena and logistics processes. Therefore, the subject of the article is predicting in logistics and includes the moving averages prediction method. This article aims to systematise the concepts and types of prediction methods, and also to present an algorithm calculating the moving averages predicting method based on actual empirical data production of passenger cars in Poland in 2016. Conducting all kinds of prediction methods is an extremely useful complement to the existing gaps in the theory and practice processes in logistics.

3

Control of single-phase power active filters

Roch M., Braciník P., Altus J., Otčenášová A.

Prace Instytutu Elektrotechniki

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2012

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Z. 258

201-209

EN

This paper deals with three methods of determination of reference current for control of single-phase active filters. All this methods are based on the idea that an ordinary single-phase (system) quantity can be complemented by a fictitious second phase so that both of them will create an orthogonal and orthonormal system.

PL

Artykuł traktuje o trzech metodach ustalania prądu odniesienia do sterowania jednofazowym filtrem aktywnym. Wszystkie te metody bazują na założeniu, że zwykły układ jednofazowy może być uzupełniony przez fikcyjną drugą fazę tak, że obie tworzą układ ortogonalny i ortonormalny.

4

Dynamic voltage restoring with instantaneous determination of load reactive power

Dobrucky B., Altus J., Pokorny M.

Zeszyty Naukowe. Elektryka / Politechnika Opolska

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2008

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Vol. 323, z. 60

95-96

EN

The paper deals with the high dynamic properties of singlephase dynamic voltage restorer (DVR) using instantaneous power factor determination. Providing virtual approach and application of orthogonal transform theory the ordinary single-phase system can be transformed into equivalent two-axes system. The new thought is based on the idea that ordinary single-phase quantity can be complemented by virtual fictitious phase so that both of them will create orthogonal system, as is usual in three-phase systems. Application of above-mentioned theory makes it possible to use complex methods of analysis as instantaneous active, reactive power and power factor determination. The later is necessary for using of minimum energy control for dynamic voltage restorer. Practical application of instantaneous active, reactive power and power factor determination method uses moving average technique. The paper shows some examples of the simulation experiments results, which proved fast dynamic response of DVR.