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Comparative evaluation of performances of two versions of NCEP climate forecast system in predicting Indian summer monsoon rainfall

Acharya N., Kulkarni M., Mohanty U., Singh A.

Acta Geophysica

2014

Vol. 62, no. 1

199--219

The operational prediction of climatic variables in monthly-toseasonal scales has been issued by National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) through Climate Forecast System model (CFSv1) since 2004. After incorporating significant changes, a new version of this model (CFSv2) was released in 2011. The present study is based on the comparative evaluation of performances of CFSv2 and CFSv1 for the southwest monsoon season (June-July-August-September, JJAS) over India with May initial condition during 1982-2009. It was observed that CFSv2 has improved over CFSv1 in simulating the observed monsoon rainfall climatology and inter annual variability. The movement of the cell of Walker circulation in years of excessive and deficient rainfall is better captured in CFSv2, as well. The observed teleconnection pattern between ISMR-sea surface temperature (SST) is also better captured in CFSv2. The overall results suggest that the changes incorporated in CFSv1 through the development of CFSv2 have resulted in an improved prediction of ISMR.21

Comparative study of different orographic representations with respect to the Indian summer monsoon simulation

Dash S. K., Mohandas S.

Acta Geophysica Polonica

2005

Vol. 53, nr 3

325-340

In spectral General Circulation Models that are now widely used in opera- tional weather forecasting and research, the time dependent atmospheric parameters and orography are represented in the form of double series. In such spectral transform methods, Gibbs oscillations appear due to sharp gradients in terrain height, moisture, and cloud fields. The present paper shows the usefulness of different digital filters in reducing the negative values of orography. The application of filters also reduces the heights of the mountain peaks. This affects the Indian region the most, because of the presence of the Himalayas and the Western Ghats. In this paper, an attempt has been made to represent the orography by a new method, called the Filtered Modified Orography (FMO), in which a two dimen- sional Lanczos filter has been applied in the spectral domain globally with a subsequent local enhancement of the Himalayas and the Western Ghats. The dual advantages of reduction in negative orography values and enhancement of mountain peaks were achieved. A comparison with the envelope orography, where the mean orography is enhanced globally, shows that the new method is able to reduce some of the errors and disparities associated with the envelope technique while retaining some of the advantages of the barrier effect regionally. Results show reasonably good representation of global winds, geopotential and rainfall in FMO representation in T80 model of the National Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasting.