Wyniki wyszukiwania - BazTech

Ograniczanie wyników

Znaleziono wyników: 2

Liczba wyników na stronie

Wyniki wyszukiwania

Wyszukiwano:
w słowach kluczowych: modele hydrologiczne

Sortuj według:

Ogranicz wyniki do:

Modelling flow changes in potential climate change conditions - an example of the Kaczawa basin

Kuchar L., Iwański S., Jelonek L., Szalińska W.

Studia Geotechnica et Mechanica

2012

Vol. 34, nr 2

51-62

Climate change, regardless of the causes shaping its rate and direction, can have far-reaching environmental, economic and social impact. A major aspect that might be transformed as a result of climate change are water resources of a catchment. The article presents a possible method of predicting water resource changes by using a meteorological data generator and classical hydrological models. The assessment of water resources in a catchment for a time horizon of 30-50 years is based on an analysis of changes in annual runoff that might occur in changing meteorological conditions. The model used for runoff analysis was the hydrological rainfall-runoff NAM model. Daily meteorological data essential for running the hydrological model were generated by means of SWGEN model. Meteorological data generated for selected climate change scenarios (GISS, CCCM and GFDL) for the years 2030 and 2050 enabled analysing different variants of climate change and their potential effects. The presented results refer to potential changes in water resources of the Kaczawa catchment. It should be emphasized that the obtained results do not say which of the climate change scenarios is more likely, but they present the consequences of climate change described by these scenarios.

Reach of river channel filling forecasting by means of autoregression integrated moving a verage method (ARIMA-models)

Baranenko F.F.

Ecological Chemistry and Engineering. A

2008

Vol. 15, nr 12

1419-1423

This review considers the application of statistical methods and ARIMA (autoregression integrated moving average) models to rainfall-runoff modeling and flood forecasting have been discussed. This is a relatively emerging field of research, characterized by a wide variety of techniques, an amenity of hulk source data, a possibility of intermodel comparisons, determina-tion its adequacy to observable data and also inconsistent reporting of model skin. The paper outlines the basic principles of ARIMA modeling and algorithms used. Literature survey underlines the need for clear guidance in current ARIMA modeling practice, as well as the comparison of ARIMA models with already existing models of rainfall-runoff. Accordingly, a template is proposed in order to assist the construction of future ARIMA rainfall-runoff models.

Przedstawiono zastosowanie metod statystycznych, w tym zwłaszcza modelu ARIMA (autoregresji całkowanej zmiennej średniej), do prognozowania przebiegu sytuacji powodziowych. Omówiono zastosowanie modelu ARIMA do opisu powsta-wania wód powodziowych spowodowanych ulewnymi deszczami oraz spływu tych wód.