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Złożoność trzęsień ziemi i ich prognozowanie

Senatorski P.

Przegląd Geofizyczny

2004

Z. 3-4

131-146

According to the time predictable model of seismic cycles, based on Reid's elastic rebound concept, consecutive earthquakes are represented by two parameters: occurrence time, and size, characterized by seismic moment or the mean coseismic slip. Recently, it has been shown that even in the simplest case of the Parkfield section of the San Andreas fault, the model fails. The next large earthquake, expected about 30-15 years ago, has not struck the fault till now. This work is an attempt to show that the deviation from the predictability of earthquakes expected by the tested model is related with the source heterogeneity, and with locality of fault stability conditions. These features are not taken into account in Reid's concept, which can be treated as a uniform approximation of seismic sources. Conclusions presented in this work are illustrated by computer simulations based on the more realistic model of the heterogeneous seismic source. Using simulated seismicity for predictive purposes seems to be unrealistic in the nearest future, because of a lack of any satisfactory earthquake theory. The present work suggests more modest objective, namely, searching for statistical relations between earthquake parameters. The scaling relationship for the seismic energy as a function of the seismic moment and other macroscopic parameters of seismic events, can be significant in estimations of future earthquake danger in a given region.