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EN
The paper presents results of numerical analyses related with assessment of the impact of mean zonal drift in the troposphere on the properties of the dynamics of a simple two-layer model of the baroclinic troposphere. It was proved that the model dynamics is mainly influenced by zonally differentiated surface temperature. It causes numerous bifurcations. They are often Hopf bifurcations of the second kind during which tropospheric states quite distant from the states before the bifurcations are generated. It significantly influences the model predictability. The paper contributes to the assessment of applicability of hydrodynamic models to weather forecasting for periods longer than two weeks.
EN
The paper analyzes, from the point of view of the theory of smooth dynamic systems, a simple two-layer model of baroclinic atmosphere applied within the main Hadley cell of circulation. The dynamics of the model was investigated in conditions excluding orographic influence but including momentum forcing in the upper and lower layers of the troposphere and thermal interaction between the troposphere and the surface for various vertical differentiations of the zonal drift in two tropospheric layers. The obtained results contribute to a profound view onto the applicability of classical weather forecasting models based on the hydrodynamic attitude.
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