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Business cycles in European regions

Spychała Marcin, Spychała Joanna

Zeszyty Naukowe. Organizacja i Zarządzanie / Politechnika Śląska

2024

z. 193

561--575

Purpose: The main purpose of the considerations is to present and analyze the most important morphological features of cyclical fluctuations for the 27 European Union countries as a whole (aggregated indicator – EU27) and for individual EU countries in the period from the first quarter of 2000 to the fourth quarter of 2022 based on the gross domestic product dynamics indicator. On the basis of the constructed indicators, which made it possible to isolate business cycle fluctuations, the degree of synchronization of the cycles of individual EU regions with the EU27 reference cycle was assessed. Design/methodology/approach: The methodological foundations of the research process and the empirical assessment of regional business cycles in the EU were preceded by theoretical analyzes regarding the concept, essence and morphological features of regional business cycle fluctuations. The study is based on 92 observations for each studied region. Dynamic indicators were built reflecting changes in general economic activity, i.e. quarterly time series of GDP. The obtained series were decomposed and deseasonalized. Upper and lower turning points were identified, resulting in phases of growth and slump in a given economy. This made it possible to present full business cycles and then assess them (in particular, determine the degree of synchronization between individual countries and the reference cycle). Findings: By assessing the course of fluctuations in business cycles of the entire economy of the European Union as a whole and fluctuations in business cycles of individual regions making up the EU in the period from the first quarter of 2000 to the fourth quarter of 2022, it can be concluded that this progression is not uniform. Divergences in business cycles in the European Union are an important feature of the data. This differentiation depends largely on the specific development of each region. Originality/value: The course of cyclical fluctuations was determined for all countries that are members of the European Union, as well as in individual EU regions.