In the paper there is proposed the application experimental tapering method for prediction of some reliability factors connected with defects of faighter aircraft bearing structure defects. On the base of defects from years 1977-1996 the prognosis of these factors for 1997 has been made. Initial series has been treated by three transformation with application: 2 points movable mean, 2 points movable median and filter 4253 H. In this way series of models have been obtained and parameters of each of them were determined by minimization of mean percent absolute error minimization (MAPE).
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