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Estimates of current and future climate change in Belarus based on meteorological station data and the EURO-CORDEX-11 dataset

Danilovich Irina, Geyer Beate

Meteorology Hydrology and Water Management. Research and Operational Applications

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2021

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Vol. 9, Iss. 1-2

1--30

EN

This study provides an assessment of the current and future changes (in terms of both direction and value) in air temperature, precipitation, snow, wind and their extremes over the territory of Belarus using information from 42 meteorological stations and 92 regional circulation model (RCM) simulations with the highest available horizontal resolution (EUR-11). Three representative concentration pathway scenarios, namely, RCP2.6, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, are considered. Results demonstrate that in recent decades, temperature has increased over the territory of Belarus by 1.3°C, with the largest increase occurring during the cold season (2.1-2.3°C). Ensemble scenarios project further increases in air temperature in the current century by +0.5-1.5°C, +2.8°C, and +5.2°C under the RCP2.6, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios, with the largest increase during the cold season under the RCP8.5 scenario. The annual means were observed to increase (insignificantly) by 5-7% and the summer precipitation extremes exhibited a 20-25% growth in recent decades. Moreover, dry conditions have intensified in Belarus, particularly during the growing season. Further increases in precipitation of 10-15% across Belarus are projected to occur in all seasons under the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios. Simulation models predict greater increases in single day rainfall events compared to their multiday precipitation counterparts. The greatest increases in maximal dry period length (by 1-2) are expected to occur in summer and autumn. The models project the general decrease in snowfall across Belarus to continue into the current century, with a reduction in snow precipitation days of 10-30 days. Despite the reduced wind strength (by 0.9-1.0 m·s -1 ) since the 1970s over the territory of Belarus, the ensemble model reveals slight nonsignificant changes in seasonal and annual wind strengths until the end of the century. Significant changes of 1-3 days under varying directions of the wind regime were observed for days with a strong breeze and storms.

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Metrologia GNSS

Hadaś T., Bosy J., Kapłon J., Rohm W., Sierny J., Wilgan K.

Geodeta : magazyn geoinformacyjny

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2014

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nr 1

44--48

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Warunki meteorologiczne w rejonie Stacji H. Arctowskiego w 1998 roku na tle wielolecia 1978-1989 (Wyspa Króla Jerzego, Szetlandy Południowe)

Zwolska I.

Problemy Klimatologii Polarnej

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1999

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nr 9

153--164

EN

Polish Antactic Station H. Arctowski is located at King George Island (South Shetlands, Antarctica) near the Admiralty Bay (Φ=62°10'S, λ=58°28'W). Measurements and meteorological observations were recorded tour times per day (00, 06, 12, 18 GMT). In this paper the weather conditions at the vicinity of the Arctowski Station in 1998 are characterised by air temperature, air pressure, wind speed and direction, relative humidity, total cloudiness, sunshine duration, pecipitation. Year 1998 can be defined as abnormal warm, the mean annual air temperature was -0,7°C and in comparison with the multiyear average (1978-1989) was higher by 0,9°C. Positive anomaly was detected in ten months of year. In comparison with the multi-year average of air pressure (988,5hPa), wind speed (6,0m/s), cloudiness (6,1) this year had lowest values (Table 1 ). The insolation conditions were very bad, the number of hours with sunshine reached 712,3 (long term average sum of sunshine duration is 896,0 h). In 1998 winds from SW and WSW were the most frequent (14,3%) cooling down and intensive precipitation were connected with this wind circulation. However the greatest air temperature falls corelate with eastern winds (8,6%). High frequency of wind direction in 1998 was W (9,3%), N i NNW (8,8%) and SE (8,4%) too. Relative humidity was 82,1% and corelated with average for a long time period 1977-1989. Atmospheric precipitation was higher of the average long term sum. The permanent snow cover maintained from June until the middle of November, and its maximal thickness was 93,3 cm in September.

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Warunki meteorologiczne na Równinie Kaffiöyra (NW Spitsbergen) w okresie 20.07 - 2.09.1998

Araźny A.

Problemy Klimatologii Polarnej

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1999

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nr 9

103--115

EN

The article presents results of meteorological observations carried out in the summer of 1998 on the Kaffiöyra Plain during XVth Toruń Polar Expedition organized by the Geography Institute, Nicholas Copernicus University of Toruń. The measurements were carried out tour climatological time a day (01,07, 13 and 19 LMT) from 20th July to 2nd September 1998 i.e. 45 days. The values of meteorological elements are presented in Tab, 2 and Fig. 2. Apart tram the 1998 summer data, there have also been presented for comparison mean values of basic meteorological elements from comparable periods (July 21-August 31) of all the summer seasons when the Toruń Polar expeditions operated on Spitsbergen (Tab. 4).

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Badania wymiany energii między atmosferą a jej podłożem

Angiel M.

LAB Laboratoria, Aparatura, Badania

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1999

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R. 4, nr 2

12-15

PL

Niniejszy artykuł prezentuje udaną próbę stworzenia automatycznej stacji meteorologicznej w oparciu o zespół różnych czujników pomiarowych i system rejestracji zbudowany z modułów pomiarowych serii ADAM-4000.