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Evaluating Approaches to Wartime Mass Evacuation Management in Eastern NATO Territories: A Literature Review

Borowska-Stefańska Marta, Goniewicz Krzysztof, Grama Vasile, Hornak Marcel, Masierek Edyta, Morar Cezar, Penzes Janos, Rochovska Alena, Wiśniewski Szymon

Safety & Defense

2023

1--13

The eastern flank of NATO has been a region of strategic importance due to its proximity to Russia. Moreover, tensions have escalated in recent years following Russia’s annexation of Crimea and military intervention in Ukraine. As a result, questions have emerged regarding the preparedness of NATO’s eastern flank in the event of a military conflict. One critical aspect of preparedness is the ability of its inhabitants to move and relocate to safer areas during a crisis. This article provides a comprehensive literature review on the mass evacuation of civilians, focusing on the spatial mobility of residents of NATO’s eastern flank in the event of a military conflict on their territory. It delves into the availability of transportation infrastructure and the supply of resources for relocation, factors crucial for spatial mobility during military conflict. Additionally, the article explores the potential impact of critical infrastructure destruction and the complex behavioral issues affecting evacuation. The study’s findings reveal that both logistical and human factors must be considered in evacuation planning, contributing to the state of the art in this field. The implications of this work reach beyond immediate preparedness strategies, suggesting the need for a holistic approach that combines infrastructure development, resource allocation, human behavior understanding, and international coordination. By highlighting these nuances, the article offers valuable insights that may inform policymakers and practitioners in developing more effective, resilient strategies for managing mass evacuations during times of crisis, reflecting broader concerns about regional security and humanitarian response.

Wpływ samoewakuacji na wybrane parametry ruchu drogowego podczas masowej ewakuacji ludności – część 1

Gromek P., Kozioł J.

Zeszyty Naukowe SGSP / Szkoła Główna Służby Pożarniczej

2015

Nr 53 (1)

58--70

Artykuł przedstawia wyniki analizy wybranych parametrów ruchu drogowego w warunkach masowej ewakuacji ludności. W części pierwszej główną uwagę zwrócono na wpływ samoewakuacji na prędkości pojazdów, czas ich przebywania i średnie dystanse pokonywane w sieci drogowej strefy ewakuacji. Artykuł rzucił światło na wieloaspektowość i złożoność problematyki modelowania ruchu podczas masowej ewakuacji ludności. Ponadto, ukazano możliwe obszary zastosowań oprogramowania VISSIM w symulacji ruchu w ramach masowej ewakuacji ludności.

Traffic modeling is an integral aspect of mass evacuation of people issues. Usage of the transport engineering output allows to get information crucial in management (planning, organizing, leading and controlling) processes related with safety of both evacuated and evacuating people. VISSIM® (PTV Group®), as a computational, transport engineering tool, is worth to mention. It is widely used by subjects managing the road traffic. In spite of the fact, that the VISSIM is not directly dedicated to mass evacuation simulation needs, the VISSIM dynamic assessment module makes possible to get information concerning evacuation parameters. As a result of 45 VISSIM simulations, the authors gathered data concerning average vehicles speed distribution, vehicle distance distribution and distribution of times dedicated to vehicles present in the road net. In general, it was proved, that volunteer evacuation could have negative influence for traffic conditions during mass evacuation of people. Raising volunteer evacuation scale caused raising the vehicle distances and times parameters. As far as the authors are concerned, further research is needed – the research directed to elementary analysis of traffic determinants as well as further VISSIM application possibilities in mass evacuation reality.