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Cointegration analysis in the Central European spruce timber market

Kożuch Anna

Drewno : prace naukowe, doniesienia, komunikaty

2021

vol. 64, nr 208

119--133

The oversupply of spruce timber in Central Europe reduces softwood prices, compromising the profitability of forest holdings. To date, relationships between Central European timber markets have been relatively little studied; the same is true of the factors affecting roundwood price variability and fluctuations in that region. An understanding of changes in those markets and linkages between them is important not only for forest owners and managers, but also for companies in the wood sector. The present work describes market analysis in terms of long-term correlations between the Austrian, Czech, Polish, and Slovak markets (cointegration analysis). Cause-and-effect relationships between the analyzed markets were verified using the Granger causality test. The Engle-Granger and Johansen cointegration tests revealed a long-term equilibrium between the analyzed spruce sawlog markets, except for Slovakia. Bidirectional causality was found between the Austrian, Czech, and Polish markets. However, there was no evidence for the integration of pulpwood markets, which indicates their independence.