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Content available Safety analysis of complex multistate ageing system
EN
Recent developments of an innovative own earlier approach to safety analysis of a complex multistate ageing system impacted by its operation processes are presented. A safety function and other safety indicators are defined for a complex multistate ageing system changing its functional structure and consequently its safety structure and its components safety parameters during the operation and determined under the assumption that its components have piecewise exponential safety functions. Results are applied to examine safety of port and maritime transportation systems.
EN
The chapter focuses on safety examination of a technical system of a maritime ferry that is the component of a shipping critical infrastructure. The model of the critical infrastructure safety without considering outside impacts is applied to determination of the maritime ferry technical system safety indicators. The operation impact model on critical infrastructure safety is created and applied to safety and resilience analysis of this system. The safety and resilience indicators are determined for this system under the assumption that its components’ safety functions are piecewise exponential. The comparison of the maritime ferry technical system safety indicators without considering outside impacts with indicators considering its operation impact is done.
EN
The paper is concerned with an application of the critical infrastructure operation process related to climate-weather change model to identification and prediction of this process for maritime ferry. There are distinguished four different processes for the corresponding ferry operating area. Further, using identified parameters of the ferry operation process and the ferry operating area climate-weather change processes, there are determined the unknown parameters of those processes. Namely, there are determined the probabilities of the processes staying at the initial states, the probabilities of the transitions between the states and the mean values of the processes' conditional sojourn times at particular states. Finally, there are predicted the main characteristics of the ferry operation process related to climate-weather change processes at the distinguished operating area.
EN
The paper is concerned with an application of the model of critical infrastructure operation process including operating environment threats and extreme weather hazards to identification and prediction of this process for the maritime ferry. There are investigated four processes for the considered maritime ferry operating area. Further, using identified parameters of the operation process including operating environment threats and the climate-weather change processes for the maritime ferry operating area, there are determined the unknown parameters of these processes. Namely, the probabilities of the ferry processes staying at the initial states, the probabilities of the ferry processes transitions between the states and the mean values of the ferry processes conditional sojourn times at particular states. Finally, there are predicted the main characteristics of the maritime ferry operation process including operating environment threats and extreme weather hazards at the distinguished operating areas.
EN
The climate-weather change process for the maritime ferry operating at Port Gdynia and at Baltic Sea open waters between Gdynia bay and Karlskrona bay is considered and its states are defined. Further, the semi-Markov process is defined and used to create a general probabilistic model of the climate-weather change process for the maritime ferry operating at considered areas.
EN
This article aims to analyze the problem of maritime ferry critical infrastructure assets and their interconnections identification. As a result, there are distinguished direct assets, auxiliary assets, flow of people, goods and services of the maritime ferry as a component of the shipping critical infrastructure network. Additionally, the identification of interconnections and interdependencies of this critical infrastructures network are identified.
EN
The article is created to identify the climate related hazards at the Baltic Sea area and their extreme event parameters exposure for maritime ferry analysis. As a result, there are distinguished possible natural hazards coming from climate/weather change: strong winds, sea water level, precipitation, ice, fog, large waves, water temperature and air temperature.
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