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1 2016

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Prediction of aircraft lost of control in the flight by continuation, bifurcation, and catastrophe theory methods

Sibilski K., Kowalski M.

Journal of KONES

2016

Vol. 23, No. 4

451--460

Lost of Control in Flight (LOC-I) is ordinarily associated with flight outside of the normal flight envelope, with nonlinear behaviours, and with an inability of the pilot to control the aircraft. These results provide a means for analysing accident data to establish whether or not the accident should be classified as LOC-I. Moreover, they help identify when the initial upset occurred, and when control was lost. The analysis also suggests which variables were involved, thereby providing clues as to the underlying mechanism of upset. However, it does not provide direct links to the flight mechanics of the aircraft, so it cannot be used proactively to identify weaknesses or limitations in the aircraft or its control systems. Moreover, it does not explain how departures from controlled flight occur. The complexity of the disaster aetiology stems from both the scale and coupling of the systems (not only the physical aircraft systems but also the organizational systems that support the operation). This complexity creates a pattern of disaster that evolves or it is precipitated through a series of several small failures. The cusp catastrophe model facilitates the mapping of Reason’s latent failure model, providing a descriptive and predictive illustration of the emergence of latent conditions under the trigger of situational factors. The risk of an accident increases as the situational and systematic factors combine to create an inherent instability resulting in the catastrophic event.