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Inter-annual oscillations of Baltic water volumes and sea levels

Wróblewski A.

Oceanologia

1998

No. 40 (3)

183-203

In spite of the existence of recent long-term sea level measurement series, these have not been applied to compute the long-term characteristics of Baltic water volume changes. To deal with the problem, the mean annual volume changes in the Baltic basin were computed for the measurement period 1896-1986 on the basis of mean monthly sea levels at six tide gauges. EOFs were applied to obtain the averaged sea level characteristics for the entire basin. The results were compared with those of calculations based on the readings of the Stockholm tide gauge, regarded as representative of the whole Baltic, and on geodetic measurements. The differences were found to be minimal. Following computation of the mean annual water volumes, the time series obtained was subjected to a Finite Fourier Transform. The resulting amplitude spectrum was worked up with the bootstrap technique at the 5% significance level, yielding oscillations with periods of 5.6, 4.5 and 3.6 years and corresponding volume change amplitudes of 7.9, 8.7 and 8.7 km3. The fundamental statistical characteristics of the Baltic water volume changes were determined together with the application of stochastic parametric processes. A forcing study of the long-term water volume oscillations in the Baltic is included.