The purpose of this study is to evaluate seismic hazard parameters in connection with the evolution of mining operations and seismic activity. The time-dependent hazard parameters to be estimated are activity rate, Gutenberg–Richter b-value, mean return period and exceedance probability of a prescribed magnitude for selected time windows related with the advance of the mining front. Four magnitude distribution estimation methods are applied and the results obtained from each one are compared with each other. Those approaches are maximum likelihood using the unbounded and upper bounded Gutenberg–Richter law and the non-parametric unbounded and non-parametric upper-bounded kernel estimation of magnitude distribution. The method is applied for seismicity occurred in the longwall mining of panel 3 in coal seam 503 in Bobrek colliery in Upper Silesia Coal Basin, Poland, during 2009–2010. Applications are performed in the recently established Web-Platform for Anthropogenic Seismicity Research, available at https://tcs.ah-epos.eu/
Praca ta stanowi analizę stanu zagrożenia tąpaniami w Polu Północnym - głównym polu eksploatacji w obecnym obszarze górniczym kopalni "Bobrek-Centrum", ruch "Bobrek". Skomplikowana sytuacja górniczo-geologiczna, niekorzystne decyzje administracyjne i górnicze w latach siedemdziesiątych i osiemdziesiątych XX wieku dotyczące eksploatacji pod miastem Bytom, to wszystko miało negatywny wpływ na stan zagrożenia tąpaniami w tym rejonie. "Górnictwo w rejonie Bytomia ma przed sobą jeszcze 30 lat eksploatacji opartej na tych pokładach, które w przeszłości "skreślono". Był to jednak czas, gdy można było eksploatować inne pokłady. Dziś i jutro górnictwa w tym rejonie to wyzwanie dla tych, którzy górnictwo traktują jako służbę i powołanie" [1].
EN
The "Bobrek-Centrum" Hard Coal Mine is a mine with long mining tradition. The main extraction panel in the present mine field of the Mine is the Northern Panel. Complicated geological-mining situation (washing out of the seam 501 or complexes of resistant roof layers of sandstone, sandy shales), natural susceptibility of the coal deposits of the Bytom syncline to rockbursts, former mining operations, indistinct and non- ordered deposit extraction in a relatively small area, chaotic and not fully considered deposit extraction policy become apparent today. "Mining in the Bytom area can function and will be functioning through the next 30 years on the basis of seams, which once in the part were "cancelled". However, there was a time, when other seams could be extracted. Today and tomorrow mining in this area is a challenge for those, who the mining profession consider as service and vocation" [1].
In this paper we compare some results of a few methods estimating of attenuation of seismic (AE) waves energy in front of mining longwall at the "Bobrek-Centrum" coal-mine. The methods use the routinely observed AE energy and estimate the a value applying more or less simplified attenuation relation and assumptions on the distribution of AE sources in the longwall. The results although preliminary look very promising and are confirmed with an analysis of mining and geological situation.
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