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Uncertainty in estimating mean solar radiation fluxes at the Baltic surface from irregular ship-borne meteorological observations

Rozwadowska A.

Oceanologia

1999

No. 41 (1)

25-50

The influence of the technique of sampling of meteorological conditions and the number of observations on uncertainties in estimates of the solar radiation flux in the Baltic region is analysed. A semi-empirical model, applied to regular meteorological observations from two Baltic island stations, Gotska Sandon and Arkona, was employed to derive solar radiation fluxes (downward irradiances) for error analysis. The impact of several factors, i.e. consistent sampling at one observation time, using both daytime and night-time observations in the flux calculations, and consistent oversampling during the same part of a month on systematic uncertainties in the monthly mean flux estimates are discussed. The random errors resulting from an insufficient number of observations used in the flux calculations and error reduction with an increasing number of observations are analysed with respect to batch and random sampling. The statistical correlation of consecutive meteorological observations (meteorological conditions represented by the zenithal transmittance of irradiance) was also investigated with respect to errors in the estimation of the solar radiation flux for the Baltic Sea region.