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A method of determining risk zones of investment in real estate

Ustinovichius L., Podvezko V., Ginevicius R.

Control and Cybernetics

2006

Vol. 35, no 2

471-486

In the real estate sector, especially in construction or purchasing of commercial buildings, adequate evaluation of market development and property management is of paramount importance. In this paper, application of mathematical modelling to evaluating the efficiency and risk of investment projects is discussed. Most of the microeconomic models are discrete, implying that the initial data and the results obtained are discrete values. In the suggested model, the most likely variability intervals of the parameters are taken as the basis of modelling. The models suggested in the present paper deal with local investment problems, which should be promptly solved in the presence of a great number of alternative investment possibilities. The modelling is aimed at determining zones related to the quality of decisions in the area of investment. The principles of mathematical modelling and determination of various financial risk zones are described. An example of determination of risk zones of investments in Vilnius are presented.