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Can the publication of annual financial reports become an opportunity for insider trading?

Suliga M.

Managerial Economics

2015

Vol. 16, no. 1

77--89

Illegal insider trading is a problem that involves most of financial markets. Unusual abnormal returns as well as increased trading volumes observed ahead of price sensitive information can be signals of this type of market abuse behavior. In this paper, I study the occurrence of insider trading on the Warsaw Stock Exchange. I verify if publications of annual financial reports of WIG issuers can be preceded by this phenomenon. The study includes reports from the period between 1 January, 2010, and 29 May, 2014. In order to define abnormal returns, I suit the GARCH process to daily returns and use event-study analysis. Potential insider trading behaviors are found with the use of two-day cumulative abnormal returns in a first step and with the use of daily abnormal returns afterwards. The publications that are marked with potential informed price movements are analyzed for the presence of extremely high abnormal trading volumes, which can be additional signals of market abuse.

Quantile hedging for an insider

Klusik P., Palmowski Z., Zwierz J.

Probability and Mathematical Statistics

2010

Vol. 30, Fasc. 2

247--258

In this paper we consider the problem of the quantile hedging from the point of view of a better informed agent acting on the market. The additional knowledge of the agent is modelled by a filtration initially enlarged by some random variable. By using equivalent martingale measures introduced in [1] and [2] we solve the problem for the complete case, by extending the results obtained in [4] to the insider context. Finally, we consider the examples with the explicit calculations within the standard Black–Scholes model.

On existence of local martingale measures for insiders who can stop at honest times

Zwierz J.

Bulletin of the Polish Academy of Sciences. Mathematics

2007

Vol. 55, no 2

183-192

We consider a market with two types of agents with different levels of information. In addition to a regular agent, there is an insider whose additional knowledge consists of being able to stop at an honest time A. We show, using the multiplicative decomposition of the Azema supermartingale, that if the martingale part of the price process has the predictable representation property and A satisfies some mild assumptions, then there is no equivalent local martingale measure for the insider. This extends the results obtained by Imkeller to the continuous semimartingale setting and general honest times.