Wyniki wyszukiwania - BazTech

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Innowacje i ich ryzyko - czy warto próbować?

Deptuła A. M., Knosala R.

Zarządzanie Przedsiębiorstwem

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2017

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Vol. 20, nr 4

10--17

EN

The issue of innovation is very popular in business world and science. The implementation of innovations is connected with the decisionmaking process which always has a strictly defined purpose. The innovation risk assessment difficulty makes it necessary to use a multicriteria analysis. This procedure based on 5 general criteria (characterising the company) and 14 detailed criteria characterising the innovation) of innovation risk assessment. Implementation of innovations is connected with a high degree of risk. The publication is an essential source of information on the risk assessment of technical innovation. The article explains definitions of the innovation risk and innovation. What is more paper presents a risk assessment procedure in the company. This article shows how to choose the experts and criteria to assessment of risk innovation.

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Modelowanie oceny ryzyka innowacji technicznych

Deptuła A., Knosala R.

Zarządzanie Przedsiębiorstwem

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2015

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Vol. 18, nr 2

2--8

EN

Innovations constitute the main source of creating competitive advantage of a company. Effective implementation of innovations requires risk analysis of the undertaking to be made. The innovative project’s risk assessment, due to a great number of variables, is difficult in realisation. This paper presents author's method of technical innovations risk assessment. The issue complexity makes it necessary to use a multi-criteria analysis. The presented method uses the knowledge of expert to determine the weights of criteria, the probability of detection and effect. In assessment risk is developed rapport and map. Risk is described by two indicators: general and detailed. First can be defined as: low, medium or high risk. Second can be defined as: very low, low, medium, high or very high risk. The article presents also the example of use described risk of assessment.

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Wykorzystanie sieci bayesowskich w szacowaniu ryzyka innowacyjnego

Knosala R., Landwójtowicz A

Zarządzanie Przedsiębiorstwem

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2013

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Vol. 16, nr 1

28--34

EN

Today, the advantage of enterprises is built by the process of innovations implementation. A decision concerning the innovations implementation is always difficult and risky because innovations are specific kinds of investments and are a potential source of many threats. This is why before taking a decision about an implementation of a given solution, it is extremely important to make an analysis of its consequences. A risk analysis becomes more and more important in this aspect because it makes it possible to estimate the level of dangers which can be caused by a new investment solution. This is why the process of estimating innovation risk with the use of Bayesian networks has been presented in this work. Data from projects carried out under the Operational Programme Innovative Economy for the years 2007-2013 in Opole Province and the NETICA programme have been used in order to work out an exemplary method. It has been shown how to determine the innovative risk level with taking into consideration the adopted assumptions. Exemplary factors of the analysed risk concerning both the enterprise and the sheer undertaking have been characterised. In the first step, the most important factors of innovation risk and their measuring indicators have been specified. Assuming that the risk is a probability of an undesirable state occurrence (according to a negative concept), the authors have chosen the following indicators to estimate the danger of an innovation failure: W 1. Period of using technology in the world. W 2. Time of carrying out the project expressed in months. W 3. Value of the whole project. W 4. Size of the enterprise. W 5. Own financial resources designed for making innovation. W 6. Financial risk. W 7. Decision about granting a subsidy. The chosen factors (sources) of risk are only an exemplary set and were chosen on purpose from the point of view of an area of the analysed risk. It is necessary to remember that each potential source of danger can become the basis of a subsequent risk connected with the project being carried out. In this context, an aspect of choosing appropriate and the most important risk sources, from the point of view of the innovation efficacy, appears. It is an extremely important stage because as we know it is impossible to take into consideration all factors because the assessment of accuracy of the estimated risk shall depend on it. In this case authors also highlight the role of an expert who mainly directs the risk estimation process. This step is a little subjective but in reality, the subjectivity is present in almost every step of risk analysis. The next step included the specification of dependencies between the enumerated factors and the probability of the analysed states occurrence. Thanks to that, the elaboration of a simple Bayesian network has become possible. It has been shown, on its basis, how the level of innovation risk an be estimated if the specific information and assumptions are available.

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Modelling techniques for rational management decisions considering innovative risk

Kharchuk V., Matviyishyn V.

ECONTECHMOD : An International Quarterly Journal on Economics of Technology and Modelling Processes

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2012

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Vol. 1, No 3

35--38

EN

The article is devoted to the problems of development of theoretical and practical recommendations for the improvement of rational decision modeling process considering innovation risks. Based on the review of domestic and foreign techniques to management decision based on consideration of the risk factor, the basic theoretical flaws and practical difficulties faced by Ukrainian enterprises were systematized. In the article the methodical approach was accepted to making rational management decisions based on consideration of options - the current assessment of innovative risk, its future level and managers’ propensity for risk.