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1 Journal of Polish Safety and Reliability Association

1 2015

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Modeling, identification and prediction of environment degradation initiating events process generated by critical infrastructure accidents

Bogalecka M., Kołowrocki K.

Journal of Polish Safety and Reliability Association

2015

Vol. 6, No. 1

47--66

The paper is the first part of the probabilistic general model of critical infrastructure accident consequences including the process of initiating events, the process of environment threats and the process of environment degradation models. Basic notions concerned with the events initiating dangerous for the environment after the critical infrastructure accident or its loss of safety critical level are introduced. The methods and procedures of estimating the process of initiating events unknown basic parameters and identifying the distributions of its conditional sojourn times at its states are proposed. Under these all assumptions from the constructed model and after its unknown parameters identification, the main characteristics of the process of the initiating events are predicted. Finally, the proposed model and methods are applied to modelling, identification and prediction of the process of initial events generated by the critical infrastructure defined as a ship operating in the Baltic Sea basin.