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Influence of climate change on the ice conditions of the Curonian Lagoon

Jakimavičius Darius, Šarauskienė Diana, Kriaučiūnienė Jūratė

Oceanologia

2020

No. 62 (2)

164-172

The Curonian Lagoon is a shallow freshwater lagoon of significant environmental value in the south-eastern part of the Baltic Sea. The objective of the study was to evaluate changes of ice indices (duration, thickness and breakup dates) of this lagoon and to assess their possible tendencies in the 21st century. A methodology was developed combining the assessment of past changes (1960-2017) of ice indices and their projections in the near (2021-2040) and far (2081-2100) future periods using a hydrometeorological database, statistical methods and regression analysis as well as regional climate models and RCP scenarios. Climate change has a considerable impact on ice conditions in the Curonian Lagoon. During the historical period of 1960-2017, the Curonian Lagoon was covered with ice for 72 days a year, ice thickness reached 23 cm, whereas ice breakup was observed in the middle of March on average. According to the different scenarios, in the near and far future periods, ice duration will last 35-45 and 3-34 days, respectively. Ice thickness is projected to be 13-15 cm in the near future, whereas, at the end of the century, it is expected to decline to 0-13 cm. In the past, the lagoon ice cover remained until the middle of the third decade of February. At the end of the 21st century, RCP8.5 scenario projects the most drastic shifts: the permanent ice cover might be absent, whereas short-term ice cover is expected to melt already in the beginning of January.

In-situ automatic observations of ice thickness of seas

Dou Y., Chang X.

Metrology and Measurement Systems

2012

Vol. 19, nr 3

583-592

Ice thickness is one of the most critical physical indicators in the ice science and engineering. It is therefore very necessary to develop in-situ automatic observation technologies of ice thickness. This paper proposes the principle of three new technologies of in-situ automatic observations of sea ice thickness and provides the findings of laboratory applications. The results show that the in-situ observation accuracy of the monitor apparatus based on the Magnetostrictive Delay Line (MDL) principle can reach š2 mm, which has solved the "bottleneck" problem of restricting the fine development of a sea ice thermodynamic model, and the resistance accuracy of monitor apparatus with temperature gradient can reach the centimeter level and research the ice and snow substance balance by automatically measuring the glacier surface ice and snow change. The measurement accuracy of the capacitive sensor for ice thickness can also reach š4 mm and the capacitive sensor is of the potential for automatic monitoring the water level under the ice and the ice formation and development process in water. Such three new technologies can meet different needs of fixed-point ice thickness observation and realize the simultaneous measurement in order to accurately judge the ice thickness.