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Modeling the impacts of climate change on hydrological processes in the Baro–Akobo River basin, Ethiopia

Mengistu Abiy Getachew, Woldesenbet Tekalegn Ayele, Dile Yihun Taddele, Bayabil Haimanote Kebede

Acta Geophysica

2023

Vol. 71, no. 4

1915--1935

Understanding the impacts of climate change on basin hydrology is critical for developing effective water management practices. This study was conducted to investigate climate change and its impact on the hydrological processes of the Baro–Akobo River basin in Ethiopia. Five bias-corrected regional climate models and their ensemble were developed to examine future climate changes in the 2030s (2021–2050) and 2080s (2071–2100) periods under the two Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) 4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios compared to a baseline (1981–2010) period. The calibrated model performed well with Nash–Sutcliffe efficiency and coefficient of determination of each 0.73 for daily and 0.89 and 0.9 for monthly simulation, respectively. Though all RCMs agree concerning the increasing direction of the 2030 and 2080s maximum and minimum temperature changes, there is inconsistency in the magnitude and direction of monthly projected rainfall changes. With the ensemble, the maximum and minimum temperatures will increase by 2.6 and 3.6 °C, respectively, and rainfall will decrease by 5% in the 2080s under RCP8.5 scenarios. The dry and wet season rainfall are expected to decrease by 19 and 3.7% under the RCP8.5 scenarios in the 2080s. Consequently, future climate change could cause a decrease in the annual surface runoff and water yield, while evapotranspiration could increase under the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios. This study provides useful insights about potential climate change impacts on the hydrology of the basin, which could be useful to inform decision-makers in developing strategies such as water harvesting to mitigate the impact of climate change.