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Using extreme frequency analysis to explain the impact of hurricanes Pauline (1997) and Otis (2023) on Acapulco, Mexico

Gutierrez-López Alfonso, Mandujano Martin Muñoz, Ibarra-Corona Mauricio Arturo, Vargas-Diaz Jose Alejandro

Meteorology Hydrology and Water Management. Research and Operational Applications

2024

Vol. 12, Iss. 2

74--83

The severity of hurricanes and cyclones in Mexico increases each year. A key area of research represents the development of a mathematical model to predict their tracks and points of impact. The IBTrACS database contains data on hurricanes and tropical cyclone tracking; it is the most comprehensive global collection of tropical cyclones. This database was developed in collaboration with all Regional Specialized Meteorological Centers of the World Meteorological Organization (WMO). Using the track, wind speed, and atmospheric pressure data for each of the hurricane and cyclone occurrences from 1851 to 2022, probabilistic type I extreme value models were applied to extreme winds and atmospheric pressure. With the help of a simple Bayesian model the probabilities were computed of a hurricane or cyclone withwind of a certain magnitude occurring at a given latitude and longitude; an event occurs when specified atmospheric pressure conditions are met. The data collected correspond to the area between west longitudes 115.5° and 85° and north latitudes 10° and 32°. This database can be managed, in the future, for the forecast of hurricane and cyclone tracks.