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Forecasting the territorial-spatial development of the system of children's medical complexes in Ukraine

Bulakh Irina

Architecture Civil Engineering Environment

2021

Vol. 14, no. 3

5--15

The forecast development prediction in time-space of the urban system of pediatric treatment facilities of Ukraine is given at the national-territorial level, based on three complementary information sources for the future: the author's structure of the urban system of healthcare, its components, and promising types of medical institutions; retrospective analysis and pat terns of organization and development of the urban system of medical institutions in the leading countries of the world, which indicate the general direction of extrapolation of systems; projected population of Ukraine (optimistic, optimal and pessimistic options), which are obtained through many years of statistical research. The paper presents the results of modeling, which demonstrate the forecast scenarios for the system development of pediatric treatment facilities at the national level of the urban network of primary care facilities and hospital networks. The model’s scenarios contain time prospects of the forecast for 2030, 2040, 2050, 2060, and 2100. The probable nonlinear deviations characteristic of the space-time development of the open system and many internal and external probable points of system bifurcations are considered. The research should be challenging and effective for international scientists who study the range of issues of the urban and spatial development of urban systems, their forecast models, and deployment scenarios. The study is also valuable for countries that face the problems of stable depopulation, have an ineffective and cumbersome healthcare system, and are in the process of looking for ways to reform the medical system in an urban planning context.

Przyczyny restrukturyzacji samodzielnych publicznych zakładów opieki zdrowotnej

Wielicka-Gańczarczyk K.

Zeszyty Naukowe. Organizacja i Zarządzanie / Politechnika Śląska

2016

z. 89

539--550

W artykule scharakteryzowano czynniki makrootoczenia wpływające na konieczność przeprowadzenia restrukturyzacji w szpitalach oraz podjęto próbę scharakteryzowania kolejnych zmian w sposobie funkcjonowania szpitali. Artykuł wzbogacono o wybrane wyniki badań, które przeprowadzono wśród szpitali publicznych i podmiotów tworzących. Uzyskane odpowiedzi dotyczyły przyczyn, dla których planuje się wdrożyć lub wdrożono działania restrukturyzacyjne. Celem artykułu jest zaprezentowanie wyników badań odnoszących się do powodów, dla których szpitale decydowały się na wdrożenie działań restrukturyzacyjnych.

The article describes the macro factors which have a negligible effect on the need for restructuring public hospitals. This article attempts to predict subsequent changes in the future in the way of hospitals functioning. Article enriched with selected results of the research, which conducted among public hospitals and forming entities. The responses concerned the reasons why plans to implement or implemented restructuring acts. The aim of the article is to present the results of studies relating to the reasons why the hospital decided to implement restructuring process.