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Using ground motion prediction equations to monitor variations in quality factor due to induced seismicity: a feasibility study

Convertito Vincenzo, De Matteis Rafaella, Esposito Roberta, Capuano Paolo

Acta Geophysica

2020

Vol. 68, no. 3

723--735

Sub-surface operations for energy production such as gas storage, fuid reinjection or hydraulic fracking may modify the physical properties of the rocks, in particular the seismic velocity and the anelastic attenuation. The aim of the present study is to investigate, through a synthetic test, the possibility of using empirical ground-motion prediction equations (GMPEs) to observe the variations in the reservoir. In the synthetic test, we reproduce the expected seismic activity (in terms of rate, focal mechanisms, stress drop and the b value of the Gutenberg-Richter) and the variation of medium properties in terms of the quality factor Q induced by a fuid injection experiment. In practice, peak-ground velocity data of the simulated earthquakes during the feld operations are used to update the coefcients of a reference GMPE in order to test whether the coefcients are able to capture the medium properties variation. The results of the test show that the coefcients of the GMPE vary during the simulated feld operations revealing their sensitivity to the variation of the anelastic attenuation. The proposed approach is suggested as a promising tool that, if confrmed by real data analysis, could be used for monitoring and interpreting induced seismicity in addition to more conventional techniques.

Modeling of a historical earthquake in Erzincan, Turkey (Ms~7.8, in 1939) using regional seismological information obtained from a recent event

Karimzadeh S, Askan A.

Acta Geophysica

2018

Vol. 66, no. 3

293--304

Located within a basin structure, at the conjunction of North East Anatolian, North Anatolian and Ovacik Faults, Erzincan city center (Turkey) is one of the most hazardous regions in the world. Combination of the seismotectonic and geological settings of the region has resulted in series of significant seismic activities including the 1939 (Ms~7.8) as well as the 1992 (Mw = 6.6) earthquakes. The devastative 1939 earthquake occurred in the pre-instrumental era in the region with no available local seismograms. Thus, a limited number of studies exist on that earthquake. However, the 1992 event, despite the sparse local network at that time, has been studied extensively. This study aims to simulate the 1939 Erzincan earthquake using available regional seismic and geological parameters. Despite several uncertainties involved, such an effort to quantitatively model the 1939 earthquake is promising, given the historical reports of extensive damage and fatalities in the area. The results of this study are expressed in terms of anticipated acceleration time histories at certain locations, spatial distribution of selected ground motion parameters and felt intensity maps in the region. Simulated motions are first compared against empirical ground motion prediction equations derived with both local and global datasets. Next, anticipated intensity maps of the 1939 earthquake are obtained using local correlations between peak ground motion parameters and felt intensity values. Comparisons of the estimated intensity distributions with the corresponding observed intensities indicate a reasonable modeling of the 1939 earthquake.