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Hindcasting global temperature by evolutionary computation

Stanisławska K., Kundzewicz Z. W., Krawiec K.

Acta Geophysica

2013

Vol. 61, no. 3

732--751

Interpretation of changes of global temperature is important for our understanding of the climate system and for our confidence in projections for the future. Massive efforts have been devoted to improve the accuracy of reproducing the global temperature by the available climate models, but the hindcasts are still inaccurate. Notwithstanding the need to further advance climate models, one may consider data-driven approaches, providing practically useful results in a simpler and faster way. Without assuming any prior knowledge about physics and without imposing a model structure that encapsulates the existing knowledge about the underlying processes, we hindcast global temperature by automatically identified evolutionary computation models. We use 60 years of records of global temperature and climate drivers, with training and testing periods being 1950–1999 and 2000–2009, respectively. This paper demonstrates that the global temperature observed in the past is mimicked with reasonably good accuracy. Evolutionary computation holds promise for modeling the global climate system, which looks hopelessly complex in classical perspective.

Zmiany klimatu - Nowy raport Międzyrządowego Panelu ds. Zmian Klimatycznych (IPCC)

Marzec A.

Polityka Energetyczna

2007

T. 10, z. 1

97-103

Artykuł stanowi skrócony opis informacji zawartych w czwartym Raporcie IPCC na temat zmian klimatu. Przedstawiono dotychczasowe zmiany, m.in. wzrost średniej globalnej temperatury w okresie ostatnich kilku lato0,8°C (w porównaniu z latami 1850-1900), wzrost poziomu oceanów i wzrost częstotliwości występowania dni gorących. Zreferowano prognozy dalszych zmian w XXI w., oparte o różne scenariusze rozwoju globalnej sytuacji gospodarczej i postępu technologicznego.

The paper summarizes information on climate changes presented in the recent IPCC report ("Summary for Policymakers"; February 2007). The changes until now have been described, such as the 0.8°C increase of global average temperaturę in a few recent years (compared to 1850-2000 years); sea level rise and an increase in freąuency of hot days. Next, climate forecasts for XXI century have been reported that were derived from various scenarios of futurę global economy and technology development.