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Forecasting seismic activity rates in northwest Himalaya through multivariate autoregressive forecast of seismicity algorithm

Chingtham Prasanta, Tiwari Anurag, Yadav Arabind Kumar

Acta Geophysica

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2019

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Vol. 67, no. 2

465--476

EN

In this study, a model based on multivariate autoregressive forecast of seismicity (MARFS) algorithm is adopted to forecast seismic activity rates in northwest Himalaya, using the compiled homogenized moment magnitude (MW) based catalogue. For this purpose, each source zone delineated by Yadav et al. (Pure Appl Geophys 170:283–295, 2012) is divided into a spatial grid interval of 0.5° × 0.5° while the entire catalogue span (1975–2010) is segregated into six time periods/grids to estimate seismic activity rates spatially and temporally. These seismic activity rates which are estimated from spatial density map of hypocenters exhibit high values in Chaman Fault (Zone 1), Hindukush-Pamir region (Zone 3) and the mega thrust systems, i.e., Main Central Thrust, Main Boundary Thrust and Himalayan Frontal Thrust (Zone 4). Then, the seismic activity rates during 2011–2016 could be forecasted by extrapolating (through auto-regression procedure) those observed for previous time periods. The forecast seismic activity rates are estimated within the values of 0 and 7.57 with high values primarily observed in Hindukush-Pamir region of Zone 3 and the gently north-dipping thrust fault systems (Main Central Thrust, Main Boundary Thrust, Himalayan Frontal Thrust) of Zone 4. Finally, the associated area under the curve of receiver operating characteristics graph suggests the superiority of forecasting model with respect to random prediction, whereas results of the data-consistency test, i.e., N test of our model, exhibit consistency in between the observed and simulated likelihoods. Moreover, the hypothetical t test performed in between the spatial grids of forecast seismic activity rates and observed seismic activity rates confirms that the former is consistent with the latter.

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Macro Models of Vehicle Kilometres Travelled

Jamroz K., Wachnicka J.

Logistics and Transport

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2015

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Vol. 27, No. 3

17--24

EN

There are a number of ways to measure transport of which kilometres travelled is the most frequent macro indicator (at country level). It is used to estimate projected fuel consumption, potential number of vehicles, amount and type of exhaust fumes emissions and the number of road accidents and casualties. The paper presents macro models of vehicle kilometres travelled, built on the basis of data from some fifty countries worldwide. Next, the resulting model was calibrated for the conditions in Poland.

3

Analiza istniejących prognoz rozwoju konsumpcji i podaży gazu ziemnego w Polsce w świetle dostępnych prognoz Unii Europejskiej

Kaliski M., Krupa M., Sikora A.

AGH Drilling, Oil, Gas

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2012

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Vol. 29, no. 1

185-195

PL

W artykule omówiono istniejące i dostępne publicznie prognozy dotyczące podaży i popytu gazu ziemnego w Polsce w perspektywie zatwierdzonej Polityki Energetycznej Polski 2030 (PEP 2030) oraz pojawiających się estymacji możliwego wydobycia gazu z łupków w Polsce. Autorzy w artykule podnoszą, że choć strategia dywersyfikacji dostawców jest wyraźną przesłanką do zwiększenia bezpieczeństwa energetycznego kraju, to mimo to rozbieżności w prognozowaniu przede wszystkim "energy mix", olbrzymi wpływ na prognozy polityki klimatycznej UE oraz brak przewidywalności co do możliwych scenariuszy rozwoju wydobycia gazu z łupków są na tyle duże, że trudno mówić o przewidywalności i stabilizacji rynku gazu w Europie. Omówione zostały także scenariusze rozwoju rynku gazu uwzględniające rozwój wytwarzania energii elektrycznej z OZE, energetykę jądrową oraz perspektywę zero energetycznego rozwoju kraju (wzrost poziomu efektywności energetycznej). Wnioskiem z artykułu jest konieczność zbudowania modelu prognostycznego dla rynku gazu ziemnego w Polsce oraz zmiana prognoz w PEP 2030.

EN

The article discusses the existing and publicly available forecasts of supply and demand of natural gas in Poland in the Polish Energy Policy (PEP 2030) and the estimation of the possible emerging shale gas production in Poland. The authors of the article argue that although the strategy of diversification of suppliers is a clear prerequisite to enhance national energy security, despite the differences in prognosis above all "energy mix", and a huge impact on the forecasts in the EU climate policy or even the lack of predictability as to the possible scenarios for the development of gas production from shale are large enough that it's hard to talk about the predictability and stability of the gas market in Europe. Also discussed the gas market scenarios taking into account the development of energy generation from renewable sources, nuclear power and the prospect of zero-energy development of the country (increased the level of the energy efficiency). The conclusion of this article is the need to build a predictive model for the natural gas market in Poland and forecasts changes in the PEP 2030.