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4 Journal of Polish Safety and Reliability Association

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Identification and prediction of climate-weather change process for port oil piping transportation system operating area

Torbicki M.

Journal of Polish Safety and Reliability Association

2017

Vol. 8, No. 2

107--112

The paper is concerned with an application of the climate-weather change process for a critical infrastructure operating area model to identification and prediction of this process for the port oil piping transportation system operating area. For the considered piping operating area, there are distinguished three different climate-weather change processes and their states. Further, there are identified the unknown parameters of those processes, i.e. the probabilities of the climate-weather change processes staying at the initial climate-weather states, the probabilities of the climate-weather change transitions between the climate-weather states and the mean values of the climate-weather change processes' conditional sojourn times at particular states. Finally, there are predicted the main characteristics of the climate-weather change processes at the distinguished operating area.

General Approach to Modelling Operation Threats and Extreme Weather Hazards Impact on Critical Infrastructure Safety

Kołowrocki K., Soszyńska-Budny J.

Journal of Polish Safety and Reliability Association

2017

Vol. 8, No. 3

1--8

The paper presents the theoretical, general approach to safety modelling of operation threats and extreme wather hazards impact on Critical Infrastructures. To achieve this aim, the scheme of the operation and climate-weather influence on CI is presented and described. Furthermore, the basic critical infrastructure safety indicators and IMCISM Model 1 are introduced.

Critical infrastructure operation process related to operating environment threats and extreme weather hazards

Kołowrocki K., Kuligowska E., Soszyńska-Budny J.

Journal of Polish Safety and Reliability Association

2017

Vol. 8, No. 2

41--58

Considering a significant influence of the critical infrastructure operating environment threats on its operation process and safety, more precise and convergent to reality model of the critical infrastructure operation process related to critical infrastructure operating environment threats is built. The method of defining the parameters of this operation process is presented and a new procedure of their determining in the case when the critical infrastructure operating threats are not explicit separated in this process is proposed.

Modelling climate-weather change process including extreme weather hazards for critical infrastructure operating area

Kołowrocki K., Soszyńska-Budny J.

Journal of Polish Safety and Reliability Association

2016

Vol. 7, No. 3

149--154

The climate-weather change process for the critical infrastructure operating area is considered and its states are introduced. The semi-Markov process is used to construct a general probabilistic model of the climate-weather change process for the critical infrastructure operating area. To build this model the vector of probabilities of the climate-weather change process staying at the initials climate-weather states, the matrix of probabilities of the climate-weather change process transitions between the climate-weather states, the matrix of conditional distribution functions and the matrix of conditional density functions of the climate-weather change process conditional sojourn times at the climate-weather states are defined. To describe the climate-weather change process conditional sojourn times at the particular climate-weather states the uniform distribution, the triangular distribution, the double trapezium distribution, the quasi-trapezium distribution, the exponential distribution, the Weibull distribution, the chimney distribution and the Gamma distribution are suggested and introduced.