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2 Journal of Polish Safety and Reliability Association

2 2016

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Modelling climate-weather change process including extreme weather hazards for maritime ferry

Jakusik E., Kołowrocki K., Kuligowska E., Soszyńska-Budny J., Torbicki M.

Journal of Polish Safety and Reliability Association

2016

Vol. 7, No. 3

41--46

The climate-weather change process for the maritime ferry operating at Port Gdynia and at Baltic Sea open waters between Gdynia bay and Karlskrona bay is considered and its states are defined. Further, the semi-Markov process is defined and used to create a general probabilistic model of the climate-weather change process for the maritime ferry operating at considered areas.

Modelling climate-weather change process including extreme weather hazards for port oil piping transportation system

Jakusik E., Kołowrocki K., Kuligowska E., Soszyńska-Budny J., Torbicki M.

Journal of Polish Safety and Reliability Association

2016

Vol. 7, No. 3

31--40

The climate-weather change process for the critical infrastructure operating area is considered and its states are defined. Further, the semi-Markov process is used to create a general probabilistic model of the climate-weather change process for the critical infrastructure operating area. To construct this model the vector of probabilities of the climate-weather change process staying at the initials climate-weather states, the matrix of probabilities of the climate-weather change process transitions between the climate-weather states, the matrix of conditional distribution functions and the matrix of conditional density functions of the climate-weather change process conditional sojourn times at the climate-weather states are defined. Preliminary applications of the proposed model to the climate-weather change process for the port oil transportation system operation area are presented.