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Case-Study Modelling Analysis of Hydrodynamics in the Nearshore of the Baltic Sea Forced by Extreme Along-shore Wind in the Case of a Cross-shore Obstacle

Sokolov A., Chubarenko B.

Archives of Hydro-Engineering and Environmental Mechanics

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2018

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Vol. 65, nr 3

163--176

EN

In the current study we use a three-dimensional model with hydrodynamic and spectral wave modules operating in a coupled mode to simulate the response of currents and wind wave fields to winds of 20–25 m/sec offshore of the protective structure of the Saint Petersburg Flood Prevention Facility Complex. The model was calibrated against field data, which allowed us to obtain a tool describing storm situations in the eastern part of the Gulf of Finland with a satisfactory accuracy. The numerical modeling showed that the protective dam did not have a noticeable effect on the levels of stormsurge, significantwave height, or current speed in areas seaward of the dam. The increase in erosion processes on the southern shore of the easternmost part of the Gulf of Finland in recent past has most probably been related to other factors. We found that if a west or south-west wind of at least 25 m/s blows over the Baltic Sea for at least 16 hours, the level of storm surges seaward of the dam may reach 3 or more meters. An artificial strengthening of the coastline and the creation of shore protection structures are recommended.

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Selected extreme weather events on the Polish coast of the Baltic Sea in the period 2001-2014

Filipiak J., Malinowska M.

Oceanological and Hydrobiological Studies

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2016

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Vol. 45, No. 3

405--423

EN

The article examines the spatial and temporal variability in selected extreme meteorological phenomena on the Polish coast of the Baltic Sea. Data from the 2001-2014 period related to a few meteorological and oceanographic elements were used to calculate indices of extreme weather events. The amount of intensive and widespread precipitation events in the 21st century corresponds well with the long-term means and is stable over a long period. The number of 50-60 frost days recorded per year has been systematically decreasing for several decades. Only a few deep cyclones occur per year and year-to-year variations of their number and magnitude corresponds to the overall long-term insignificant changes in the cyclone activity in the North Atlantic and the European region. The mean annual number of days with strong winds reaches nearly 8 cases per year. About 6 storm surges per year are recorded and this value has been slowly increasing in the long-term perspective. The rare occurrence of sea ice in 2001-2014 is a continuation of the reduction in the phenomenon observed in the 20th century. The passage of deep cyclones resulting in strong winds, storm surges and waves constitutes the most dangerous hazard to the coast.

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Methodology for Electric Cables Critical Infrastructure Network safety and resilience to climate change analysis

Blokus-Roszkowska A., Kołowrocki K., Soszyńska-Budny J.

Journal of Polish Safety and Reliability Association

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2016

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Vol. 7, No. 2

151--162

EN

In the paper the energy sector as a critical infrastructure is presented and basic terminology concerned with the energy critical infrastructure is given. The interactions and connections between critical infrastructures are described and the effects of power disruptions to other critical infrastructures are highlighted. Next, presented terminology and taxonomy refer to climate change and resilience to climate change of electric cable critical infrastructure. Finally, taxonomy of electric cable critical infrastructure network in Baltic Sea Region is given, especially in terms of climate change and resilience to climate change. Basic notions related to extreme weather events and climate change having impact on energy generation, transmission and distribution are introduced.

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Egg Losses Caused by Cold Snap in the Black-Headed Gull, Chroicocephalus ridibundus L.

Indykiewicz P.

Polish Journal of Ecology

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2015

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Vol. 63, nr 3

460--466

EN

Short- and medium-distance migrant birds that return to the breeding grounds early can usually take better-quality territory leading to higher breeding success than of congeners arriving later. On the other hand, early breeders usually have to face severe weather conditions. 109 Black-headed Gulls which had begun laying in a breeding colony (N-Poland) earlier than the remaining 960 females lost 66.2% of eggs because of severely adverse weather. On 9 April 2012 ambient temperature fell to -4.6°C during the first two hours after sunrise (06:00–07:59) resulting in eggs cracking during the adults' first feeding bout after the night. Up to 1 mm wide cracks in eggshells were from 3 mm to 24 mm long; in some eggs the external shell membrane also broke. Pairs that lost eggs did not repeat broods. In this way in 2012 this colony suffered the greatest loss of eggs during its 15-years history. This event showed that even in the temperate climate, adverse weather, a consequence of the global climate change, does have negative impact on life history traits of birds.

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The art and science of large-scale disasters

Gad-el-Hak M.

Bulletin of the Polish Academy of Sciences. Technical Sciences

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2009

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Vol. 57, nr 1

3-34

EN

The subject of large-scale disasters is broadly introduced in this article. Both the art and science of predicting, preventing and mitigating natural and manmade disasters are discussed. A universal, quantitative metric that puts all natural and manmade disasters on a common scale is proposed. Issues of prediction, control and mitigation of catastrophes are presented. The laws of nature govern the evolution of any disaster. In some cases, as for example weather-related disasters, the first-principles laws of classical mechanics could be written in the form of field equations, but exact solutions of these often nonlinear differential equations are impossible to obtain particularly for turbulent flows, and heuristic models together with intensive use of supercomputers are necessary to proceed to a reasonably accurate forecast. In other cases, as for example earthquakes, the precise laws are not even known and prediction becomes more or less a black art. Management of any type of disaster is more art than science. Nevertheless, much can be done to alleviate the resulting pain and suffering. The expansive presentation of the broad field of large-scale disasters precludes a detailed coverage of anyone of the many topics touched upon. Three take-home messages are conveyed, however: a universal metric for all natural and manmade disasters is presented; all facets of the genre are described; and a proposal is made to view all disasters as dynamical systems governed for the most part by the laws of classical mechanics.