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Zastosowanie elementów teorii wartości ekstremalnych do oceny dynamiki ryzyka powodziowego w dorzeczu Odry na przykładzie stacji hydrologicznej w m. Trestno

Szałata Ł., Kuźmiński Ł., Zwoździak J.

Rocznik Ochrona Środowiska

2016

Tom 18, cz. 2

974--987

The aim of the article is to assess the variability of the floods’ risk with the use of maximal values distribution. In the authors’ researches, the hydrometric data in the form of daily water levels from the period of years 1981-2013 will be used. The collected data come from the hydrological station in town Trestno, located in the 242.1 km of Odra River (in southern-west Poland). For the purpose of estimating the flood risk, quarterly highs from the collected data have been selected. Authors have taken the probability of exceeding the alarm states for the analyzed section of the river as a measure of the risk of appearing floods. This risk has been calculated by using the theoretical cumulative distribution of quarterly highs of the water levels. The Frechet distribution was used in the studies as well. At the same time, the article has paid significant attention to the possibility of adapting the shown solutions for the integrated flood risk management process in accordance with the current National and European legislations.