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Fuzzy decision making under transition from silence to confusion

Uemura Y.

Control and Cybernetics

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2015

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Vol. 44, no. 3

407--411

EN

Faculty of Education, Mie University, 1515 Kamihamacho, Isu; Mie, Japan uemura0742yahoo.co.jp We often fall into silence. After that, we make a decision through confusion, in most cases. In silence, cool mind runs parallel with warm heart. Traversing over these two, the phenomenon arises, chich can be interpreted as a fuzzy event, which can be called waver. In other words, two states of nature develop into conﬂict, and are covered by a fuzzy event. In confusion, we consider that the states of nature, which had been moving in conﬂict, not only undergo an inversion, but also a transformation takes place from warm heart into dry mind. It is therefore possible to derive a fuzzy function, resulting from the fuzziﬁcation of the transition matrix from silence to confusion, absorbing noise, and taking expectation to link the membership function with the multi-attribute utility function. This short note shows that we can calculate the expected utility by using both the probability of a fuzzy. event and the subjective importance of the two states of nature for the decision maker. Further, we can obtain an optimum action, based on the theory of maximum expected utility.

2

Ryzyko w podejmowaniu decyzji

Redziak Z.

Zeszyty Naukowe AON

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2013

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nr 1(90)

211-226

EN

This article presents selected aspects of risk in decision-making. It is meant for both those focused more on theory and on practice who deal with optimization of decision-making effectiveness. It defined the notion of risk through the analysis of the relation between risk and uncertainty. The issues of making risky decisions includes discussion of an individual scale of preferences, distortions which appear in the course of assessing the probability of certain states of things or phenomena and finally the principle of maximization of expected utility. The article is concluded with a presentation of the Perspective Theory. General assumptions linked with risk taking were followed by examples of their usage. The author also discussed the quantitative tools supporting decision-making processes and whose able usage may facilitate making resolutions of risky decisions.

3

Analyzing the Possibility of Modeling the Specificity of an Individual Stock Market Investor's Behavior

Michałowski P.

Biuletyn Instytutu Systemów Informatycznych

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2011

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nr 8

53-58

EN

The paper presents various methods of modeling an individual stock market investors' behavior. The author analyzed the possibility of using approaches related to the theory of expected utility, prospect theory, game theory and other studies on this subject. The article is the result of efforts to create an adequate model in order to investigate the specificity of the decision-making behavior of the so-called individual stock market investors.

PL

W artykule przedstawiono różne metody modelowania zachowań giełdowych inwestorów masowych. Dokonano analizy możliwości wykorzystania podejść związanych z teorią oczekiwanej użyteczności, teorią perspektyw, z teorią gier oraz inne badania dotyczące tego tematu. Artykuł jest wynikiem prac nad opracowaniem adekwatnego modelu pozwalającego badać specyfikę zachowań decyzyjnych tzw. giełdowych inwestorów masowych.