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Generation capacity of national power system in view of commodity crisis and war in Ukraine in 2022: diagnosis, risk assessment and recommendations

Tajduś Antoni, Tokarski Stanisław

Archives of Mining Sciences

2022

Vol. 67, no. 3

545--559

The article assesses the production capacity of the Polish Power System, taking into account the military operations in Ukraine and the related resource crisis. An analysis was made of how the war in Ukraine will affect the validity of Poland’s energy policy adopted a year ago. The sensitivity of the Polish Energy System to the import of energy resources from Russia was assessed as well as the possibilities of filling the gap caused by the lack of these raw materials were described and measures were proposed. It shows how electricity prices in the EU countries developed in the last year and what the energy mix of these countries looked like. Alternative scenarios for the transformation of the domestic system were discussed, including the coal – renewable energy – nuclear energy scenario, with the minimization of gas as a fuel of the transition period.

Risks related to energy policy of Poland until 2040 (EPP 2040)

Tajduś Antoni, Tokarski Stanisław

Archives of Mining Sciences

2020

Vol. 65, no. 4

877--899

The paper presents a brief outline of the European Union Climate and Energy Package in early 2020, as well as the EU’s plans in this respect until 2030 (Winter Package and Green Deal) and even further until 2050 (EU’s climate neutral target). Also the current condition of power generation in Poland and challenges for Polish energy sector in the nearest future are discussed. The Energy Policy of Poland until 2040 (EPP 2040) is analysed in relation to possible risks and dangers. Some improvements are proposed in regard to the implementation of the document. In addition, the current volume and perspectives of hard coal and lignite mining in Poland until 2040 are discussed and compared with an expected demand for coal in Polish power plants and combined heat and power stations. On the basis of the prognosis of energy consumption in the period 2031-2040, there seems to appear a serious risk of energy shortage due to a possible delay in a nuclear power project and lack of lignite mining at the level defined in EPP 2040 policy. Therefore, some variants of providing the security of energy supplies are taken into account and thoroughly analysed in the paper.