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Impact of the Covid-19 pandemic on the rates of return of selected WSE listed companies

Jabłoński Bartłomiej, Kika Dorota

Zeszyty Naukowe. Organizacja i Zarządzanie / Politechnika Śląska

2023

z. 169

351--370

Purpose: Financial crises, stock market crashes and consequently bursts of speculative enthusiasm have been accompanying investors since the 17th century. The first speculative bubble, so-called “tulip mania”, occurred in the Netherlands between 1636 and 1637, while a speculative “fever” spread among the shareholders of the Dutch East India Company from 1636 to 1640. Those events exposed remarkable possibilities and complexity of the financial markets, and later encouraged investors to explore a variety of investment strategies bringing above-average rates of return. However, the question remains: how do modern-day investors react to the market disruptions and which investment strategies are popular among them. The purpose of this paper is to provide an understanding of how and why the COVID-19 pandemic affected the investors’ behavior and the rates of return earned by selected WSE listed companies. An attempt was also made to estimate the sensibility of investing in selected stocks through the use of the basic and most popular fundamental analysis market ratios, i.e. P/E and P/BV. Furthermore, based on selected companies, semi-strong information efficiency of the Polish stock market was assessed, with a particular focus on the COVID-19 pandemic period. Methodology: The paper assesses the rates of return of companies constituting the WIG20 index and selected “covid” companies and calculates P/E and P/BV market ratios to verify how the fundamentals of a given company affect its rates of return. As a measure of relationship strength between the market value and rate of return indicators, the Spearman's rank correlation coefficient and a significance test for the Spearman's rank correlation coefficient were selected. Findings: The research reveals that, during times of violent turmoil and massive panic on the stock markets, an interesting investment strategy that brings above-average rates of return is to build a stock portfolio based on a current trend. All hypotheses formulated were positively verified in the paper. Practical implications: The study's results provide a valuable source of information for stock market investors, particularly individual investors who, when making tough investment decisions, i. e. during stock market crashes or financial crises, can employ strategies that involve building an investment portfolio based on trending companies and achieve above-average rates of return. Furthermore, the suggested investment strategy is adaptable and, over centuries, still effective. Originality: The considerations concentrated not only on identifying an appropriate investment strategy in times of a stock market turmoil, but largely focused around behavioral aspects of investing, which represent an important addition to theories about rational decision-making by investors and the efficiency of financial markets.

Efekt stycznia na przykładzie indeksów sektorowych Giełdy Papierów Wartościowych w Warszawie

Lisicki B.

Zeszyty Naukowe. Organizacja i Zarządzanie / Politechnika Śląska

2018

z. 131

299--310

Hipoteza mówiąca o efektywności informacyjnej rynku finansowego wskazuje na natychmiastowe dostosowywanie się cen instrumentów na giełdach papierów wartościowych w skutek pojawienia się określonego rodzaju informacji. Zmiany te mogą powodować spadek lub wzrost wyceny rynkowej poszczególnych instrumentów (w tym wypadku akcji). Na przestrzeni lat badacze analizujący zachowania inwestorów na rynkach finansowych dostrzegli pewne anomalie, czyli sytuacje w przypadku których napływająca informacja nie jest jedynym czynnikiem powodującym zmiany ceny. Jedną z nich jest tak zwany efekt stycznia. Autor opracowania podjął tematykę jego występowania na Giełdzie Papierów Wartościowych w Warszawie. Co istotne badanie zostało przeprowadzone w ujęciu branżowym to znaczy na podstawie klasyfikacji według indeksów sektorowych. W celu sprawdzenia istnienia efektu stycznia została wykorzystana metodyka analizy zdarzeń. Obliczone nadwyżkowe zwrotu w styczniu każdego roku okresu 2005-2017 dla poszczególnych indeksów sektorowych wskazały jego występowanie tylko dla dwóch z nich – WIG-BUDOWNICTWO oraz WIG-INFORMATYKA.

The hypothesis of the financial market information efficiency indicates immediate adjustment of instrument prices resulting from the availability of new information. However, there are examples of anomalies when information flowing from the market is not the only price-making factor. One of them is the January effect, as seen on the global stock exchange. In the present paper, the effect will be discussed in relation to the Warsaw Stock Exchange. As part of the survey, the sector indices of the stock exchange were compared cross-sectionally. Using the event study methodology, the January abnormal returns for the selected industry indices were calculated for each year between 2005 and 2017. The results of the study indicated the occurrence of a statistically significant January effect in the case of two indices: WIG-construction and WIG-IT.