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Assessment of the historical policy mixes for Poland using the game approach

Kruś L., Woroniecka-Leciejewicz I.

Control and Cybernetics

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2018

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Vol. 47, no. 3

277--300

EN

The study here presented pertains to the analysis of mutual interactions of the monetary and ﬁscal policies in the case of Poland. The historical policies carried out during diﬀerent periods of time and their economic eﬀects are compared with the possible strategies, obtained from the analysis of the proposed monetaryﬁscal game. In the study, the methods of non-cooperative game theory are combined with macroeconomic modeling. The respective game is formulated for monetary and ﬁscal authorities as players. Strategies of these players refer to the respective instruments of their policies: the real interest rate and the budget deﬁcit in relation to GDP. Payoﬀs include inﬂation and GDP growth, respectively. The payoﬀs are calculated using a recursive macroeconomic model estimated for the Polish economy. The model describes inﬂuences of the instruments of the monetary and ﬁscal policies on the state of the economy. The best response strategies, the Nash equilibria and Pareto optimality are analyzed. Changes of the policies towards the more restrictive or more expansive ones and their eﬀects in comparison to the historically applied are discussed. This is performed for two diﬀerent time periods – the time of recovery after 2004 and the time of the global ﬁnancial crisis after 2008.

2

On some properties of composite distributed lag models

Gadomski J.

Operations Research and Decisions

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2013

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Vol. 23, No. 3

5--22

EN

The analysis presented in this paper is focused on basic properties of discrete distributed lag models. Such models are commonly used to model dynamic systems in various applications. In the presented considerations, time-varying distributed lags have been analyzed. Composite distributed lag models analyzed in this paper result from the summation or superposition of component distributed lag models. The analysis is restricted to models with a lag distribution, whose mean lag and variance exist. The paper presents relationships between the mean values and variances of the lag distributions of composite distributed lag models and of the component distributed lag models, as well as the relationships between the variance of the random term of composite distributed lag models and the variance of the random term of the component distributed lag models.

3

Dynamics of loans in the Polish banking system

Gadomski J.

Control and Cybernetics

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2009

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Vol. 38, no 3

893-911

EN

At the macro level, the time-series of the amounts of loans granted (a flow) and repaid (a flow) to the banking system in each period are not available. The information on these flows is important in many analyses, such as the impact of the bank lending on investment outlays. However, one can get the information concerning the structure of loans (a stock variable) regarding their duration. In each period, the loans are granted for different periods: from overnight ones to those lasting several years. The effective preferences of the credit takers are reflected in the term distribution of the outstanding loans. In order to estimate these flows, a model aimed at linking the above-mentioned preferences, the levels of loans and flows has been developed. In the approach proposed, the amount of loans outstanding is a resultant of the rate of the new loans and their duration, which in turn is the result of the term preferences. The evaluation of the flow of loans granted in the Polish banking sector is presented.