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Contemporary seismic moment budget along the Nepal Himalaya derived from high-resolution InSAR and GPS velocity field

Verma Himanshu, Sharma Yogendra, Ching Kuo-En, Pasari Sumanta

Acta Geophysica

2025

Vol. 73, no. 1

171--186

Throughout history, several large-magnitude earthquakes have caused damage to the Himalayan region and humanity. To understand the present-day strain rate distribution and associated seismic moment budget, a high-resolution velocity field is an essential component. The present study estimates the contemporary seismic moment budget along three spatial sections over the Nepal Himalaya using the state-of-the-art high-resolution velocity field. For this, (1) we integrate 5 years of InSAR data with 77 available GPS observations over the Nepal Himalaya; (2) we then calculate strain rate distribution (dilatational and maximum shear strain rates) from this integrated velocity field, and (3) at last, we compare the geodetic moment accumulation rate estimated from strain rate tensors with the seismic moment release rate based on an earthquake database of 500 years. The results reveal that: (1) the geodetic strain rate is not homogeneous over the Nepal Himalaya, rather along the main central thrust, a relatively higher strain rate is observed; (2) the geodetic moment rate from west to east across three sections ranges from 23.39 X 1018 to 16.59 X 1018 Nm/yr, with the minimum of 8.05 X 1018 Nm/yr in central Nepal, whereas the seismic moment rate varies between 5.02 X 1018 and 11.41 X 1018 Nm/yr, with the minimum of 3.69 X 1018 Nm/yr in central Nepal; (3) the difference between geodetic and seismic moment rates from west to east provides a moment deficit rate of 18.37 X 1018 to 5.18 X 1018 Nm/yr, with the minimum of 4.36 X 1018 Nm/yr in central Nepal, and more importantly, (4) the inferred moment deficit rate suggests that the western and eastern Nepal have an earthquake potential of magnitude Mw 8.5 and Mw 8.1, respectively, whereas the central Nepal has energy budget equivalent to an Mw 7.9 event. In summary, the present study provides spatial distribution of earthquake potential in Nepal Himalaya using the most updated high-resolution InSAR and GPS velocity field, and the findings inevitably contribute to the time-dependent earthquake hazard analysis of the study region.