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1 2023

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Early warning systems against bankruptcy risk and NLP: can ChatGPT predict corporate distress?

Siciński Jędrzej

Zeszyty Naukowe. Organizacja i Zarządzanie / Politechnika Śląska

2023

z. 170

439--455

Purpose: The main purpose of this paper is to evaluate the effectiveness and usability of one of the more groundbreaking and more widely commented NLP-technique-employing inventions, i.e., the ChatGPT application acting as a digital advisor in the field of counterparty financial standing and bankruptcy risk assessment. Design/methodology/approach: The algorithmic potential presented by the ChatGPT tool can be a valuable solution in supporting the manager's work. In this study, the current potential of this solution in supporting financial analysis, and in particular, bankruptcy risk assessment, was checked. The study was carried out using the following methods: analysis and synthesis (1.), critical analysis of the literature (2.), and an experiment involving the use of a natural language processing application (3.). Findings: In the course of the research, it was found that the ChatGPT tool, according to the current state of knowledge, has extensive usability and is able to conduct interactions that in many cases are similar to communication with a human being. The tested language model shows a much higher level of training on general data than in solving narrow problems in specific fields. Nevertheless, its development potential should be assessed highly and probably its adaptation to solve highly specialized tasks in management will not be a long-term process, which makes it a candidate for the role of a digital managerial advisor in the future. Research limitations/implications: The first stage of the research covered only solving problems with the use of the simplest algorithms, such as discriminant analysis (MDA) and the study of entities whose financial statements are widely available on the web, which was a relatively low level of complexity for the language model. Practical implications: The research results are a signal that digitization and the digital revolution are not just theoretical slogans, but real functioning technologies that can change the nature of the manager's work (and the entire management system) in the near future. The development potential of NLP technology in management, which was confirmed in this work, suggests that an appropriate strategy for implementing these technologies is needed today. Originality/value: In this study, one of the first attempts was made to assess the potential and adaptability of natural language processing systems to support a manager in assessing the financial condition and risk of bankruptcy of entities.