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Long-term relationship estimation and coupling/decoupling analysis between motorway traffic and Gross Value Added. Specification of an ARDL cointegration approach and application to the Italian case study

Pampigna Andrea, Mauro Raffaele

Archives of Transport

2021

Vol. 60, iss. 4

39--56

As transportation is an activity derived from spatial complementarities between a certain supply at an origin and a certain demand at a destination, according to a general axiom it seems that economic activities entail transport demand. In this perspective, an essential analysis deals with the quantification of the relationships between transport demand and certain socioeconomic variables. Elasticity is a concept widely used in transport economics as a measure of the responsiveness of transport demand concerning different factors represented as independent variables in an econometric model and coupling/decoupling concepts have been proposed in literature. This paper deals with the estimation of elasticities of motorway traffic demand based on Gross Value Added (GVA), and the consequent investigation of coupling/decoupling situation. The analysis is based on the application of an Autoregressive-Distributed Lag (ARDL) cointegration model with the F-bound test and of the related Error Correction model. Starting from the general ARDL model and the methodology for the verification of its robustness, the same model is applied to the Italian toll road network. The time series of GVA for goods and services and the overall length of the toll network from 1995 to 2019 are considered as explanatory variables of the total annual distance traveled by light and heavy vehicles. The various tests in the ARDL framework show a cointegration between the variables, under the fulfillment of all the diagnostic requirements. In this way, the long-term elasticities and the short-term adjustment dynamics are estimated separately for the goods and services components of GVA, and light and heavy vehicles. Starting from stable estimates of elasticities, the long-term coupling and decoupling effects between motorway traffic of light and heavy vehicles and the national production of goods and services can be shown. The paper, as well as providing an updated picture of the Italian situation, identifies a methodological framework that can be transferred to other contexts for a sector of great interest to investors, such as the motorway sector. All this can be useful to meet the needs of numerous stakeholders, who want to deepen the links between the economic cycle and traffic demand on toll motorways.

Principles of the toll roads pricing

Jaworski P., Liberadzki K., Liberadzki M.

Archives of Transport

2018

Vol. 45, iss. 1

53--62

In this paper the authors refer to the method of commercial provision of road infrastructure called BOT (build-operate-transfer) under Public-private partnerships (PPPs) scheme. First we present the investment criteria for transportation PPP projects as well as application of price theory. Then we recognize that the different participants in PPP projects have distinct goals and requirements that must be met in order for them to be able to participate in an effective partnership. The main challenge for the toll road pricing is to determine the economically viable toll rate that takes into consideration the diverse and sometimes conflicting interests of different stakeholders involved in the project. The main objective is to review the theory of economic principles for optimal toll roads pricing and to review the existing approaches to transportation projects appraisal. Then the authors show how to formally derive the condition for toll rate that meets 2 criteria: 1) is socially optimal and 2) covers operator’s costs. For this purpose we use II type Tőrnquist function, a member of an Engel family of functions. This function models the relationship between income and consumption of inferior and normal goods. Tőrnquist function is a mathematical representation of the well-known Engel curves. These curves record the relationship between the quantity of goods purchased and total income. They are not necessarily straight lines. The demand for some “luxury” goods may increase proportionally more rapidly than income, whereas the demand for “necessities” may grow proportionally less rapidly than income. The precise shape will depend on the individual’s preferences for goods as reflected in the indifference curve map. We deem the highway trip to be a “second necessity good”. There is number of economists who apply the Tőrnquist function for microeconomic analysis. The extremely simple form of the Tőrnquist function allows to get the solution in a closed form.