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PL
Dotychczas stosowne jednodniowe prognozy średniego stężenia metanu dotyczące ścian odnosiły się przede wszystkim do wylotu z chodnika wentylacyjnego, gdyż na podstawie pomiarów w tym miejscu zostały opracowane. W przedstawionym artykule równania prognostyczne zostały zastosowane do prognozowania stężenia metanu na wylocie z chodnika wentylacyjnego, w chodniku wentylacyjnym w odległości do 10 m od czoła ściany oraz na wylocie ze ściany. Wyniki prognoz na wylocie z chodnika stanowiły materiał porównawczy w stosunku do wyników prognoz w pozostałych wymienionych miejscach. Uzyskane wyniki prognoz są bardzo zbliżone do wartości pomiarowych i zachęcają do przeprowadzenia dalszych prac sprawdzających ich praktyczna przydatność.
EN
Until now, the appropriate one-day forecasts of average methane concentration for walls were related primarily to the end of the ventilating roadway, as they were developed on the basis of the measurements made in that place. In the presented article, predictive equations were used to estimate the methane concentration at the end of the ventilating roadway, in a ventilating roadway at a distance of up to 10 m from the face of the wall, and at the wall end. The results of the forecasts at the end of the ventilating roadway were used as a reference material to compare to the results of forecasts in other, above-mentioned, places. The forecast results obtained are very similar to the measured values and encourage further work to be done in order to check their practical usefulness.
EN
In the presented publication, an ex post forecast of methane concentration at the airway outlet was carried out on the basis of equations previously developed and repeatedly tested by H. Badura and its errors were calculated. This forecast was considered as a reference level. Next, using the same forecast equations, the forecasting of methane concentration at the sensor location up to 10 m in front of the longwall face and at the longwall outlet was carried out, followed by the analysis of forecast errors. Since the measurement of methane concentrations in the locations under consideration differed, the results of forecasts also differed. Therefore, in order to assess the accuracy of forecasts, their absolute and relative errors were calculated and then compared with the forecast errors at the airway outlet. The analysis of errors showed that there are differences in forecast accuracy and it is advisable to develop new forecast equations mainly for the longwall outlet, but also for the location of methane concentration sensor installed in the airway up to 10 m in front of the longwall.
PL
Rozpatrzono koncepcję rejestracji przebiegów czasowych y(t) z jednoczesnym zapisem prognozy ich zmian y(t+tp) w pewnym przedziale od 0≤tp≤tp max. Rozpatrzono kilka koncepcji procedur prognozowania, ich błędy i zakres tp max.
EN
The idea for recording of time variable signals y(t) with simultaneous recording of signal prediction y(t+tp) for certain from 0≤tp≤tp max as been considered in the paper. The errors and ranges of tp max for several ideas of prediction procedures have been discussed.
EN
The study assesses the accuracy of 24-hour weather forecasts on the Klaipeda (Lithuania) - Bayonne (France) navigational route emitted in NAVTEX system. There were analysed the parts of the forecasts concerning wind direction and force, visibility and precipitation. The verification was based on the real state of these factors, stated the next day on areas concerned. A high degree of forecast accuracy was stated in all five broadcasting stations of the NAVTEX system, particularly with reference to visibility and precipitation.
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