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Are dividends impacted by the timing of macro data releases? Case of WIG, DAX and S&P500

Buła Rafał, Jabłoński Bartłomiej

Zeszyty Naukowe. Organizacja i Zarządzanie / Politechnika Śląska

2024

z. 194

49--72

Purpose: This paper attempts to reveal, on the one hand, whether dividend paid by dividendpaying companies from the WIG, DAX and S&P500 indices for the period 2017-2022 were characterized by positive dynamics of change in real terms, and whether decisions on the level of dividends recommended for payout are more determined by macroeconomic factors from the end of the year, in which the company generated financial results, or from the period, in which dividend decisions were made. Design/methodology/approach: The research objective of this paper is accomplished by means of a thorough literature analysis. In the area of statistical methods, the authors refer to classical methods of correlational analysis, with a focus on non-parametric methods (Spearman’s rho and Kendall’s tau). Findings: The analyses carried out made it possible to indicate that, for companies listed on the FSE and WSE, the only quantity correlated with changes in dividends paid is the PMI index, with a negative correlation for Polish companies and a positive one for German companies. This correlation occurs only if one considers December macroeconomic data readings. On the other hand, for NYSE-listed entities, statistically significant relationships were obtained for the PMI index (negative), the inflation rate (negative) and interest rates (positive). With the exception of interest rates, the correlations apply to both December readings and those from May of the dividend payout year. At the same time, the results indicate different decisions made by the boards of US, German and Polish companies in the face of the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic. Research limitations/implications: The study was conducted on a limited number of analyzed companies and for a limited time range. Therefore, it could be biased, due to the deterministic stock sampling method and the research period. Practical implications: Expanded knowledge of the impact of the timing of publication of macroeconomic parameters on decisions on dividend payouts and their amount. This knowledge is important for both investors and investment funds’ boards. Consequently, one can make better investment decisions. Social implications: Among the paper’s social implications, the most important appears to be a possible change in the investors’ attitude towards dividend-paying companies that not only pay dividends systematically, but also have positive dynamics of change, and the realization that dividend decisions are affected not only by a number of determinants, but also by the timing of their occurrence. Ultimately, investors’ needs could be better addressed. Originality/value: The paper evaluates the impact of macroeconomic determinants on changes in dividend payouts by companies for the period 2017-2022. What is new in the paper is the analysis of whether the timing of the publication of macroeconomic parameters significantly affects the level of dividends paid, thereby filling our knowledge gap.

Dividend policy of listed energy companies in Poland

Sierpińska Maria

Inżynieria Mineralna

2022

no. 1

35--41

The discussed problem of dividend policy in energy companies is extremely important in the context of the need to restructure the sector and move away from coal as an energy carrier in favor of renewable sources. In this light, the strategy of distribution into profits retained in the company and profit transferred to shareholders becomes important. The dividend policy is shaped by many macroand microeconomic factors. In the current economic situation, factors such as the overall economic situation, inflation and the stock market situation, the net profit generated, the level of corporate debt, or the need to maintain financial liquidity play a significant role in it. The dividend policy affects the capital structure and the cost of its acquisition, which determines the profitability of restructuring projects. The research hypothesis is that the lack of a stable dividend policy is a significant cause of the undervaluation of energy companies on the stock exchange. The market valuation of the companies studied was much lower than their book value. However, the calculated Pearson linear correlation coefficients do not confirm this hypothesis. The dividend rate is only one of many factors that contribute to the undervaluation of energy companies on the stock exchange. It diminishes the possibility of obtaining equity capital on the stock exchange in the form of a new series of shares, and at the same time maintains a rational capital structure.

Podjęty w artykule problem polityki dywidend w spółkach energetycznych jest niezmiernie istotny w warunkach potrzeby restrukturyzacji sektora, odejścia od węgla jako nośnika energii na rzecz źródeł odnawialnych. W tych warunkach ważna staje się strategia podziału zysku na część zatrzymaną w przedsiębiorstwie i część wytransferowaną do akcjonariuszy. Polityka dywidend kształtowana jest przez wiele czynników makro- i mikroekonomicznych. W obecnej sytuacji gospodarczej niemałą rolę mają w niej takie czynniki: jak inflacja, koniunktura gospodarcza i koniunktura na rynku giełdowym, poziom wygenerowanego zysku netto, poziom zadłużenia spółek czy też konieczność utrzymania płynności finansowej. Polityka dywidend wpływa na strukturę kapitału i na koszt jego pozyskania co decyduje o opłacalności podejmowanych przedsięwzięć restrukturyzacyjnych. W badaniu założono, że brak stabilnej polityki dywidend jest istotną determinantą niedowartościowania spółek energetycznych na giełdzie. Wycena rynkowa tych spółek była dużo niższa niż ich wartość księgowa. Obliczone współczynniki korelacji liniowej Persona nie potwierdzają jednak tej hipotezy. Stopa dywidend jest tylko jednym z wielu czynników mających wpływ na niedowartościowanie spółek energetycznych na giełdzie. Wpływa ono na ograniczenie możliwości pozyskania kapitału własnego na giełdzie w postaci emisji kolejnej serii akcji a równocześnie na utrzymanie racjonalnej struktury kapitału.