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Uwarunkowania i prognoza bezpieczeństwa energetycznego Polski na lata 2010-2110

Gawłowski S., Listowska-Gawłowska R., Piecuch T.

Rocznik Ochrona Środowiska

2010

Tom 12

127-176

Bezpieczeństwo energetyczne każdego kraju stanowi jeden z głównych czynników jego poprawnego funkcjonowania jako pewnego spójnego gospodarstwa, które nazywa się państwem.Bezpieczeństwo energetyczne jest jednak szczególnie ważne dla państw położonych geograficznie w strefach, w których długie okresy roku dają niskie temperatury, a czasem nawet bardzo niskie i do tych obszarów strefy geograficznej musi być zaliczona także Polska. Bezpieczeństwo energetyczne naszego kraju to nie tylko bieżące ciągłe dostarczanie do naszych fabryk i domostw prądu i ciepła, ale także szeroko rozumiane środki transportu, które także, a może i głównie, pochłaniają ogromną ilość nośników energii.

Each country's energy safety is one of the main factors of its proper functioning as a cohesive form which is called a state. Energy safety is especially important for the states located in the geographic areas where it is cold during long periods. Energy safety of Poland is not only a continuous supply to our factories and homes of electricity and heat, but also widely understood means of transport, which also, and perhaps mainly, absorb enormous amount of energy. Explicit defining of the concept of energy security is difficult to formu- late, because a fundamental question must be first answered: in what regard the amount of partial generally understood energy delivered to keep the needs of Poland is yet sufficient, though minimal, but assuring Poland's safety - to the level of so-called appropriate balance that is complete. For today a conventional definition of energy safety in Poland may be used: three independent lines of oil and gas supplies assure energy safety. At present it is impossible to assure the energy safety of Poland as an independent safety, dependent only on own energy raw materials, so-called classic (gas, oil, coal) assisted with non-conventional sources like wind energy, water, solar energy and energy from biomass. Poland has to base its energy safety on community of European Countries clustered in the European Union as a future, single, big European Country of different nations, a kind of United States of Europe. It must be assumed that depleting of the Polish gas, oil and coal deposits, is proportional to depleting these raw materials in the world, but of course it can never be ruled out that still new deposits will be found, economically for their exploitation. Poland as a member of the European Union has to build first nuclear power plant until 2023, which will relieve the decreasing capacity of existing coal-fired and gas power plants. The second nuclear power plant Poland must build no later than 2037, and a third one to 2090. At the same time, it is crucial to start immediately research programs concerning development of as cheap as poossible (although it will always be expensive) technology for hydrogen production and storage, so that gradually from about 2025 in Poland next to gas stations, hydrogen stations were established for gradually appearing greater numbers of cars on hydrogen. During next decade (2010-2020) Poland should also, as far as resources permit, build at least two hydroelectric plants on the right bank of the Vistula river, assuming that the electricity from hydroelectric plants will always be approximately in the range of about 10% of power needed by Poland. Construction of small and medium-sized hydroelectric power plants should also ber promoted from the local authorities and private funds. It is also essential to promote non-conventional energy sources such as wind energy and solar energy, but keeping in mind that in the Polish climate zone you cannot count on the full continuity and stability of supply from these sources. Such source can make up a supplement electricity supply for rural, less populated, less exploited areas, such as certain areas of Pomerania or areas of North-East where the climate is more continental. It might- be predicted that, from such sources, Poland will not receive more than 3.5% (4%) of the required energy in the energy balance. It appears to be questionable, planning in any strategic aspect of energy from widely understood biomass, but in rural, low urban areas having wastelands can make use of energy crops (willow), but only as an ad hoc solution. Relatively low calorific value of such plants and huge problems with the cultivation, care, collection and re-sowing, allow to conclude that willow will not be the fuel of the future. Sewage sludge are also low in energy and give a particularly harmful emissions into the atmosphere and smell. However production of so-called biofuel from rape should be further developed, so that rape oil could at least partially complement the lack of oil, which will be in the near future, the most scarce resource of classical energy.